发达经济体的增长前景和贸易平衡

Growth prospects and the trade balance in advancedeconomies

作者：

安斯加·贝尔克（Belke，Ansgar）

斯特芬·埃尔斯特纳（Elstner，Steffen）

斯韦特兰娜市茹金（Rujin，Svetlana）

增长前景的改善会导致贸易余额下降吗？文献中对美国经济高度关注的答案是肯定的。但是，我们没有发现增长前景（新闻冲击）的改善必然会在七国集团国家中造成负面的贸易平衡影响。我们开发了一种新颖的新闻冲击识别方案，将其应用于国家/地区级向量自回归（VAR），并获得以下结果。在美国和德国，新闻冲击导致贸易平衡恶化，而在其他七国集团（G7）国家中，新闻冲击对贸易平衡产生积极影响。七国集团国家之间贸易平衡影响的差异主要是由于汇率，劳动力市场，财富影响和货币政策的异质反应。
Does an improvement in growth prospects lead to a fall in the trade balance? The answer in the literature with a strong focus on the U.S. economy is yes. However, we do not find that improved growth prospects (news shocks) necessarily lead to negative trade balance effects in the G7 countries. We develop a novel news shocks identification scheme, apply it to country-level vector autoregressions (VARs), and obtain the following results. While in the U.S. and Germany, news shocks induce a deterioration of the trade balance, in other G7 countries, news shocks have positive trade balance effects. The differences in the trade balance effects across the G7 countries are mainly due to heterogeneous reactions of exchange rates, labor markets, wealth effects, and monetary policy. Therefore, policy recommendations aimed at reducing the trade imbalances through productivity-enhancing reforms in advanced economies might not entail the targeted effects.