JPM-Foundries and OSAT：Constructive growth a fresh round-100825
作者：摩根大通
格式：pdf
页数：77
摘要：
We see no need for the foundry sector to destruct (oversupply) in
order to rebuild (growth). This cycle is different, as we believe the
sector is entering a new phase of growth (constructive), led by a
structural IDM (Integrated Device Manufacturer) outsourcing.
Consolidations will cut the number of IDMs investing in tech/capacity
substantially to two at 22nm, from over 20 at 130nm. Our
investigation of 10 major IDMs predicts US$3 billion worth of new
business to foundries per annum, supporting a multi-year upturn for
the sector into 2012. SCM stocks under our coverage should benefit
from this market-share shift in the global semiconductor production.
Sector leaders TSMC and ASE would be the biggest winners, in our
opinion. UMC would benefit from any overflows given its strong #2
position. Our monitor of leading indicators suggests that now is a good
timing to buy into the IDM story.
• Foundry – a multi-year share gain: Our estimate of some US$3 billion
pa of sales contribution from the structural IDM outsourcing – including
advanced (more for Moore) and mature tech (more than Moore) – should
help lift foundry shares in the global semiconductor market to 35% in
2015, from 25% in 2009, translating into a 11% sales CAGR in 2010-15.
• OSAT – uneven benefit: OSAT should benefit in sync with foundries
on the IDM story, yet the level of benefit is likely to differ among
players due to differentiations in Cu transition and China footprint. ASE
looks to us to be in a better position.
• Stocks for action/catalyst: A good entry point is from now till perhaps
early 4Q10. On our monitor of four barometers include earnings build,
inventory, utilization, and OSAT capital intensity. We are OW TSMC,
UMC and ASE. Pair-trade ideas: ASE over SPIL, UMC over SMIC.
• Valuation and risk: Our ROE-adjusted P/BV methodology suggests that
SCM stocks under our coverage are trading at mid/down-cycle
valuations, implying a 30-40% upside potential for OW names. We
believe mid/up-cycle valuations better justify our IDM story. Risks are
end-demand outlook, competition from GF/Samsung