格式：gdf
页数：27
目录：
Macro dampens the outlook: We downgrade ASE and SPIL to NEUTRAL.
Decelerating macro, coupled with recent supply additions to support copper
and inventory rebuild, creates risk for back-end estimates. Negative
catalysts that are likely to continue include: 1) weaker management
sentiment heading into investor conferences and 3Q10 results, 2) order cuts
moving upstream where cuts have lagged and 3) decelerating cyclical
metrics (margins, utilisation, equipment bookings, YoY sales and pricing).
■  Slowing demand and rising supply creates risk with demand slowing:
The back-end has seen a strong capex rebound to support inventory rebuild,
technology upgrades and copper migration, growing wirebonder supply 25%
YoY by 2H10. At the same time, inventory has rebuilt to post-bubble average
of 72 days for semiconductors and 39 days for total tech. Higher inventory
and greater comfort on supply should prompt customers to cut back into 4Q.  
■  2H10 already below street, cutting 2011: We keep ASE 2H10 estimates
unchanged due to customer drivers including XBOX Kinect (GPU and
WLAN), CDMA iPhone (Infineon baseband and Broadcom connectivity), and
outsourcing from analog and IDM customers, but cut 2011. We now model
1.5% YoY growth, below our prior in-line +10% YoY growth. For SPIL, we
cut 2H10 estimate (weaker customer mix), and 2011E to only +1.2% YoY.  
■  Downgrading ASE and SPIL, upstream preference on TSMC:  We
downgrade ASE from Outperform to NEUTRAL and cut our target from
NT$35 to NT$24, reflecting 1.4x P/B, the mid-point of its 0.9-1.9x P/B this
cycle. We also downgrade SPIL from Outperform to NEUTRAL, cutting our
target from NT$40 to NT$28, also 1.4x 2011 P/B, the lower end of its 1.2-
2.4x range and in line with ASE. We rate TSMC as our top upstream pick for
this macro environment.