【来源】：瑞士信贷
【时间】：2010.10.13
【篇幅】：PDF 32PAGE
【内容】：

Below EPS for Big Oil, Above for Refiners
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Bottom Line: Going into Q3, we're trimming 3Q10 estimates by ~7% for Big
Oil and we are 3.4% below consensus. We are raising Refining Earnings by
13% and are 9.5% above 3Q10 consensus. We remain Marketweight Big Oil
(CVX, MRO and HES our top picks) and defensively positioned in refining.
Following earning revisions for the US Independent Refiners, we are raising
our target price for HOC from $36 to $37 and reducing our VLO target price
from $23 to $22.
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Changes to Big Oil Earnings: There are stock-specific 3Q10 EPS
downgrades of 5.8% at XOM, 12.4% at CVX and 9.1% at HES (refining). We
highlight that the EPS cuts at XOM and CVX are deceptive. On an underlying
basis, our 3Q10 cashflow estimates actually rise by 2.1% for XOM. CVX EPS
only falls 1%, if we exclude volatile non-operational fx losses/derivatives.
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Big Oil Investment Themes and Picks. We highlight two key themes (1)
return to the Gulf, and (2) exploration as a route to higher returns. In our 16th
September report Big Oil in a Range Bound Tape, this combination of
themes suggests MRO, HES and CVX among the IOCs. Indeed if QE is right
to push oil prices higher, MRO, HES and CVX also represent low EV/CF
multiple producers with a high percentage share of oil production (see chart).
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Key Quarterly Themes. With the Moratorium lifted, we expect analysts to
query managements on the Gulf, though it will take time for exploration
drilling to resume. We’re waiting for some deal flow in the Gulf to provide a
yardstick for the exposure of key GoM players (APC, RDS, BP, CVX, HES,
PXP, NBL), and drilling results at Pasangkayu (MRO). With more acreage
deals and a falling gas curve, we’re keen to gauge non-conventional appetite.
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Better cashflow, lower earnings at XOM. XOM has continued to
underperform, lagging CVX by 10% since our April launch. 3Q10 will be the
first quarter to include XTO. Given purchase accounting, hedge gains will
mainly flow through the cashflow statement, leaving our EPS lowered. XOM
needs to deliver better upstream margins to turn sentiment around (see our
29th July report - 2012 will be XOM's Year.)
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CVX Trading Statement – Better Under the Hood than the Headlines.
Reported earnings include a $400M fx charge (20c/sh), $200M of nonrecurring
items and mark to market losses for derivatives. The market looked
through the gains in 2Q10 and should look through these losses in 3Q10. On
a clean basis our $2.30/sh estimate falls to $2.28/sh (or $2.01/sh with fx).
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Finally, we remain defensively positioned in refining as we move into
winter demand lulls. Despite being above consensus for 3Q10 earnings we
don’t believe now is the time to buy. However, as investors start to look
forward into 2011, we’d highlight three names in particular: FTO, HOC and
TSO. These are not plays on an improving margin environment, as the
economy remains tough – they are plays on self-help initiatives.