Section I: The Oil & Gas Industry..................................................... 7
A Brief History of Oil ......................................................................... 8
From biblical times…................................................................................................................8
Setting the scene......................................................................................................................9
IOCs and NOCs.......................................................................................................................13
The IOC Sisters – 100 years in the making .............................................................................14
The International Oil Companies .............................................................................................15
The IOCs Compared ........................................................................ 18
The major NOCs .....................................................................................................................21
OPEC................................................................................................. 24
A brief history.........................................................................................................................24
How does OPEC work? ..........................................................................................................25
Why is OPEC able to influence prices?...................................................................................26
What price does OPEC want?.................................................................................................27
The OPEC basket ....................................................................................................................28
What is the western IOCs exposure to OPEC?.......................................................................28
In the beginning ….. ........................................................................ 29
A brief summary .....................................................................................................................29
Geologic time and rock record................................................................................................30
Basic geology.........................................................................................................................31
Hunting for sand…..................................................................................................................33
Working hydrocarbon system.................................................................................................35
Source rocks ...........................................................................................................................37
Migration................................................................................................................................39
Reservoir quality .....................................................................................................................40
The trap and seal.....................................................................................................................42
Reservoir volumetrics .............................................................................................................43
Getting it out.................................................................................... 45
The Life Cycle of a Basin.........................................................................................................45
Field Operations.....................................................................................................................50
Land Seismic..........................................................................................................................50
Offshore seismic.....................................................................................................................52
Assessing risk and reward ......................................................................................................54
Benchmarking exploration success rates................................................................................55
Field Operations - Drilling........................................................................................................58
Directional wells......................................................................................................................62
Land and offshore rigs ............................................................................................................62
Drilling day rates .....................................................................................................................64
Field Operations - Evaluation ..................................................................................................66
Field Operations - Development .............................................................................................70
Onshore – oil is usually straight-forward… .............................................................................70
Offshore – as usual, deeper is tougher ...................................................................................71
Extending the field life ............................................................................................................73
Recovery factors .....................................................................................................................74
Primary recovery .....................................................................................................................74
Depositional controls on recovery factor ................................................................................75
Secondary recovery… waterflood...........................................................................................76
Tertiary recovery techniques...................................................................................................76
Oil Field Service Companies – where do they fit?...................................................................77
A word on costs......................................................................................................................83
Oil & Gas reserves ........................................................................... 88
A cautionary tale .....................................................................................................................88
A company’s lifeblood ............................................................................................................88
SEC Reserves – Proven developed and proven undeveloped. ...............................................89
SPE definitions - Proven, probable and possible.....................................................................92
Reserve revisions....................................................................................................................94
Reserves: What do they actually tell us? ................................................................................95
Reserves Accounting– FAS 69 ........................................................ 97
Disclosure of proved oil and gas reserves ..............................................................................97
Disclosure of capitalised cost relating to oil and gas producing activities ..............................97
Disclosure of costs incurred in oil and gas property additions................................................97
Disclosure of operational results.............................................................................................98
Disclosure of discounted future net cash flows......................................................................98
Disclosure of current cost information....................................................................................98
So how do analysts use FAS 69 information?.........................................................................99
Reserves - Where and what? ........................................................ 102
So how much oil has been extracted? ..................................................................................102
What is Peak Oil? ..................................................................................................................104
A critical weakness - simple economics ignored ..................................................................105
So when will a peak occur and does it matter? ....................................................................106
Oil & Gas Taxation......................................................................... 107
Concessions & contracts – An overview...............................................................................107
Tax & Royalty Concessions...................................................................................................109
Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) ....................................................................................110
Working through an IRR based PSC .....................................................................................116
Buy Backs .............................................................................................................................119
Oil & Gas Taxation – Some Key Terms..................................................................................121
World Oil Markets ......................................................................... 122
Fundamentals, physical and financial ....................................................................................122
Key exchanges and benchmarks...........................................................................................122
The oil price..........................................................................................................................123
Oil Demand..........................................................................................................................124
Oil Supply.............................................................................................................................127
Inventories ............................................................................................................................129
Physical vs. Financial.............................................................................................................129
World Gas Markets........................................................................ 133
The clean fuel of choice ........................................................................................................133
Gas demand.........................................................................................................................133
Gas Supply...........................................................................................................................135
Gas Pricing...........................................................................................................................139
Oil & Gas Products ........................................................................ 145
What is crude oil? .................................................................................................................145
Definitions............................................................................................................................145
Trends in crude oil.................................................................................................................147
Key Global Blends .................................................................................................................148
Refining Overview ......................................................................... 149
The Black Sheep of the family...............................................................................................149
The curse of the investment cycle ........................................................................................152
What is Refining?........................................................................... 153
What do refineries make? .....................................................................................................153
The stream of oil products ....................................................................................................154
How does a refinery work?...................................................................................................155
Key variables impacting refinery performance ......................................................................159
Configuration and complexity ...............................................................................................159
Choice of Crude – Heavy, sour, sweet and light ...................................................................162
Location ...............................................................................................................................164
Other factors........................................................................................................................164
Regional balances and market structure ...............................................................................166
Measuring Refining Profitability ............................................................................................168
US margins ($/bbl).................................................................................................................169
NWE margins ($/bbl) .............................................................................................................169
Asian margins ($/bbl).............................................................................................................169
Gasoline/fuel oil crack spreads US/Europe............................................................................170
What drives refining margins? ..............................................................................................170
Refining Industry Structure ...................................................................................................172
Petroleum Administration for Defence Districts (PADDS) ....................................................172
Marketing ....................................................................................... 174
Stability in a cyclical world ....................................................................................................174
The wholesale/retail chain.....................................................................................................176
Removing capital, containing costs.......................................................................................177
What’s in a litre of fuel? European Retail Data......................................................................178
What’s in a litre of fuel? US Retail Data ................................................................................178
Biofuels........................................................................................... 179
What are biofuels? ................................................................................................................179
Why use biofuels? ................................................................................................................179
Where are biofuels produced and used? ..............................................................................180
The regulatory framework.....................................................................................................181
Key legislative measures.......................................................................................................181
Bioethanol .............................................................................................................................183
Biodiesel ...............................................................................................................................185
Criticisms of biofuels ............................................................................................................186
Long-term developments in biofuel ......................................................................................187
Petrochemicals .............................................................................. 189
Part of the integrated chain................................................................................................... 189
The olefin plant (cracker) .......................................................................................................190
Petrochemical Industry profitability.......................................................................................192
Olefin and Aromatic Building Blocks and their Chains ..........................................................193
Ethylene – C2 Olefin..............................................................................................................193
Propylene – C3 Olefin ...........................................................................................................194
Butadiene – C4 Olefin ...........................................................................................................195
Benzene – C6 Aromatic.........................................................................................................195
Paraxylene – C8 Aromatic .....................................................................................................196
The Major Plastics or Polymers ............................................................................................197
Polyethylene (PE) ..................................................................................................................199
Polypropylene .......................................................................................................................199
Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA)............................................................................................199
Conventionals & Unconventionals............................................... 201
Conventionals .......................................................................................................................201
Unconventionals ...................................................................................................................201
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) ........................................................ 202
Overview..............................................................................................................................202
LNG - The process and the chain ..........................................................................................205
LNG – returns across the chain.............................................................................................206
Pricing of LNG.......................................................................................................................208
Costs of LNG Production ......................................................................................................211
Shipping of LNG....................................................................................................................212
Re-gasification of LNG – facilitating access ..........................................................................213
LNG - The IOCs Portfolios and Positions ..............................................................................216
The IOC majors compared ....................................................................................................218
Deepwater...................................................................................... 219
Peering into deepwater.........................................................................................................219
NGLs and condensates ................................................................. 225
A valuable by-product ...........................................................................................................225
Canada’s Oil Sands........................................................................ 226
A huge unconventional resource...........................................................................................226
Methods of Extraction – Mining............................................................................................228
Methods of Extraction – In-situ .............................................................................................228
Upgrading .............................................................................................................................230
Costs – The highest marginal cost barrel on the globe .........................................................231
Gas to Liquids (GTL)...................................................................... 233
An expensive alternative to LNG...........................................................................................233
Background..........................................................................................................................233
Commercial GTL plants are limited .......................................................................................234
There are positives................................................................................................................236
An uncertain future at this time.............................................................................................236
Coal Bed Methane ......................................................................... 237
Exactly what it says on the label ...........................................................................................237
Tight & Shale Gas.......................................................................... 239
Huge potential resource........................................................................................................239
Economic at current gas prices?...........................................................................................241
Section II: The Countries............................................................... 243
Major non-OPEC producers .......................................................... 244
Norway........................................................................................... 245
United Kingdom............................................................................. 251
US Deepwater Gulf of Mexico...................................................... 257
US Alaska ....................................................................................... 263
Canada – Oil Sands........................................................................ 269
Azerbaijan ...................................................................................... 277
Kazakhstan..................................................................................... 283
Kazakhstan – Notes ....................................................................... 289
Russia ............................................................................................. 291
Argentina........................................................................................ 299
Brazil ............................................................................................... 305
Australia ......................................................................................... 313
Major OPEC Producers.................................................................. 319
Angola............................................................................................. 321
Iran.................................................................................................. 327
Iraq.................................................................................................. 335
Kuwait ............................................................................................ 343
Libya ............................................................................................... 351
Nigeria ............................................................................................ 359
Qatar ............................................................................................... 367
Saudi Arabia................................................................................... 373
United Arab Emirates.................................................................... 381
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