Electronics & Computers:Industry growth slowing: Prefer Suning (B) over Gome (N)批发和零售贸易

研究机构：高盛高华证券 分析师： Joshua ... 撰写日期：2010年12月16日

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    We believe the strong growth domestic consumer electronic (CE) retailersachieved in 2010 was largely due to: strong property transaction volumesin 2009; subsidy programs; and a low comparison base. Looking forward,we believe these factors are less important in 2011 and we expect Suningand Gome’s SSS growth to fall to 4% and 2% in 2011 vs 15% and 15% in2010, with topline growth largely driven by store expansions.
    Lessons from Best Buy and Yamada Denki。
    In this report, our study of Best Buy and Yamada Denki indicate: 1) China’sdomestic CE market is still at early stage as Suning and Gome in totalaccount for only 15.6% of sales; 2) profit margins will likely improve alongwith number of stores and market shares; 3) revenue contribution fromtraditional appliances is likely to fall below 50% in the long term; 4)Medium term SSS growth should remain at low single digit.
    Prefer Suning over Gome。
    Comparing Suning and Gome’s operating metrics, we believe Suningprovides a better vendor platform and helps cut operating costs. Suninghas bigger exposure in lower tier cities, reports higher consolidated grossmargins, operates with higher sales-to-rental ratios and has invested morein the higher growth, lower tier markets than Gome.
    Resuming coverage on Suning with Buy and Gome with NeutralWe use our Directors Cut, cash returns-based valuation method, (EV/GCIvs. CROCI/WACC) to value Suning with a Buy rating and Gome with aNeutral rating. Our 12M TP for Suning of Rmb17.80 implies 24x 2011E P/Eand represents potential upside of 24%. Our 12M TP for Gome of HK$3.0implies 17x 2011E P/E and 2% upside potential.
    Risks。
    Property transaction volumes lower than expected; slow store expansion.