摘要翻译：
当一种新产品的全部库存在几天或几周内迅速售出时，人们会有一种印象，即新技术以一种非常容易的方式发展和征服市场。这可能适用于一些新技术，例如手机，但不适用于其他技术，如蓝光。新颖性、实用性、广告、价格和时尚是采用新产品背后的驱动力。但是，导致采用一项新技术的关键因素是什么？本文提出并研究了一个简单的创新采纳模型，该模型主要取决于三个要素：新颖性的吸引力、采用创新的惰性或阻力以及与其他主体的相互作用。社会互动有两种考虑方式：模仿和分化，也就是说，如果许多人都做同样的事情，一些人会倾向于采用一种创新，但另一些人会做相反的事情，试图与“群体”区分开来。我们通过考虑广告的力度和社会互动的效果来确定成功植入新技术的条件。我们在广告和反羊群代理的数量之间找到了一个平衡，这可能会阻止新产品的采用。我们还比较了当代理人考虑整个社会的行为或只考虑一部分社会的行为时，社会互动的效果。简而言之，本模型定性地再现了关于采用创新的现有数据。
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英文标题：
《Why, when, and how fast innovations are adopted》
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作者：
Sebastian Goncalves, M. F. Laguna, and J. R. Iglesias
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最新提交年份：
2012
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分类信息：

一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems        自适应和自组织系统
分类描述：Adaptation, self-organizing systems, statistical physics, fluctuating systems, stochastic processes, interacting particle systems, machine learning
自适应，自组织系统，统计物理，波动系统，随机过程，相互作用粒子系统，机器学习
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
  When the full stock of a new product is quickly sold in a few days or weeks, one has the impression that new technologies develop and conquer the market in a very easy way. This may be true for some new technologies, for example the cell phone, but not for others, like the blue-ray. Novelty, usefulness, advertising, price, and fashion are the driving forces behind the adoption of a new product. But, what are the key factors that lead to adopt a new technology? In this paper we propose and investigate a simple model for the adoption of an innovation which depends mainly on three elements: the appeal of the novelty, the inertia or resistance to adopt it, and the interaction with other agents. Social interactions are taken into account in two ways: by imitation and by differentiation, i.e., some agents will be inclined to adopt an innovation if many people do the same, but other will act in the opposite direction, trying to differentiate from the "herd". We determine the conditions for a successful implantation of the new technology, by considering the strength of advertising and the effect of social interactions. We find a balance between the advertising and the number of anti-herding agents that may block the adoption of a new product. We also compare the effect of social interactions, when agents take into account the behavior of the whole society or just a part of it. In a nutshell, the present model reproduces qualitatively the available data on adoption of innovation.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1208.2589