摘要翻译：
我们分析了英国经济分阶段重启的不同情况的经济学和流行病学。我们的经济模式旨在应对新冠肺炎疫情的独特特征。社交距离措施影响供给和需求，投入产出约束在限制经济产出方面发挥着关键作用。生产函数的标准模型不足以建模封锁的短期影响。IHS Markit对行业分析师进行的一项调查使我们能够评估在两个月的时间内，每个行业的哪些投入对生产是绝对必要的。我们的模型还包括库存动态和失业与消费之间的反馈。我们证明了经济结果对生产函数的选择非常敏感，说明了供给约束是如何引起强烈的网络效应的，并发现了一些反直觉的效应，如只重新开放少数行业实际上会降低总产出。具体职业的数据和接触调查使我们能够估计不同行业如何影响疾病的传播率。我们调查了六种不同的重新开放情景，提出了我们对R0增长和GDP增长的最佳估计。我们的结果表明，存在一个合理的折衷方案，使R0相对较小的增加，并使经济产出大幅增加。这对应于一种情况，即所有面向非消费者的行业重新开放，学校只对需要儿童保育的工人开放，每个可以在家工作的人都继续在家工作。
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英文标题：
《Production networks and epidemic spreading: How to restart the UK
  economy?》
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作者：
Anton Pichler, Marco Pangallo, R. Maria del Rio-Chanona, Fran\c{c}ois
  Lafond, J. Doyne Farmer
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最新提交年份：
2020
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：General Economics        一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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英文摘要：
  We analyse the economics and epidemiology of different scenarios for a phased restart of the UK economy. Our economic model is designed to address the unique features of the COVID-19 pandemic. Social distancing measures affect both supply and demand, and input-output constraints play a key role in restricting economic output. Standard models for production functions are not adequate to model the short-term effects of lockdown. A survey of industry analysts conducted by IHS Markit allows us to evaluate which inputs for each industry are absolutely necessary for production over a two month period. Our model also includes inventory dynamics and feedback between unemployment and consumption. We demonstrate that economic outcomes are very sensitive to the choice of production function, show how supply constraints cause strong network effects, and find some counter-intuitive effects, such as that reopening only a few industries can actually lower aggregate output. Occupation-specific data and contact surveys allow us to estimate how different industries affect the transmission rate of the disease. We investigate six different re-opening scenarios, presenting our best estimates for the increase in R0 and the increase in GDP. Our results suggest that there is a reasonable compromise that yields a relatively small increase in R0 and delivers a substantial boost in economic output. This corresponds to a situation in which all non-consumer facing industries reopen, schools are open only for workers who need childcare, and everyone who can work from home continues to work from home.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.10585