英文标题：
《A non-equilibrium formulation of food security resilience》
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作者：
Matteo Smerlak, Bapu Vaitla
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最新提交年份：
2016
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英文摘要：
  Resilience, the ability to recover from adverse events (\"shocks\"), is of fundamental importance to food security. This is especially true in poor countries, where basic needs are frequently threatened by economic, environmental, and health shocks. An empirically sound formalization of the concept of food security resilience, however, is lacking. Here we introduce a general framework for quantifying resilience based on a simple definition: a unit is resilient if $(a)$ its long-term food security trend is not deteriorating and $(b)$ the effects of shocks on this trend do not persist over time. Our approach can be applied to any food security variable for which high-frequency time-series data is available, can accommodate any unit of analysis (e.g., individuals, households, countries), and is especially useful in rapidly changing contexts wherein standard equilibrium-based economic models are ineffective. We illustrate our method with an analysis of per capita kilocalorie availability for 161 countries between 1961 and 2011. We find that resilient countries are not necessarily those that are characterized by high levels or less volatile fluctuations of kilocalorie intake. Accordingly, food security policies and programs will need to be tailored not only to welfare levels at any one time, but also to long-run welfare dynamics.
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中文摘要：
韧性，即从不利事件（“冲击”）中恢复的能力，对粮食安全至关重要。贫穷国家尤其如此，那里的基本需求经常受到经济、环境和健康冲击的威胁。然而，缺乏经验上可靠的粮食安全弹性概念形式化。在这里，我们介绍了一个基于简单定义的量化弹性的一般框架：如果（a）$其长期粮食安全趋势没有恶化，并且（b）$冲击对这一趋势的影响不会随着时间的推移而持续，那么一个单位是有弹性的。我们的方法可以应用于任何有高频时间序列数据的粮食安全变量，可以适应任何分析单位（例如，个人、家庭、国家），并且在基于标准均衡的经济模型无效的快速变化环境中特别有用。我们通过1961年至2011年间161个国家的人均千卡可用性分析来说明我们的方法。我们发现，具有恢复力的国家不一定是那些千卡摄入量波动较大或波动较小的国家。因此，粮食安全政策和方案不仅需要根据任何时候的福利水平，而且还需要根据长期福利动态进行调整。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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