英文标题：
《Two Different Methods for Modelling the Likely Upper Economic Limit of
  the Future United Kingdom Wind Fleet》
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作者：
Anthony D Stephens and David R Walwyn
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最新提交年份：
2018
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英文摘要：
  Methods for predicting the likely upper economic limit for the wind fleet in the United Kingdom should be simple to use whilst being able to cope with evolving technologies, costs and grid management strategies. This paper present two such models, both of which use data on historical wind patterns but apply different approaches to estimating the extent of wind shedding as a function of the size of the wind fleet. It is clear from the models that as the wind fleet increases in size, wind shedding will progressively increase, and as a result the overall economic efficiency of the wind fleet will be reduced. The models provide almost identical predictions of the efficiency loss and suggest that the future upper economic limit of the wind fleet will be mainly determined by the wind fleet Headroom, a concept described in some detail in the paper. The results, which should have general applicability, are presented in graphical form, and should obviate the need for further modelling using the primary data. The paper also discusses the effectiveness of the wind fleet in decarbonising the grid, and the growing competition between wind and solar fleets as sources of electrical energy for the United Kingdom.
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中文摘要：
预测英国风力发电机组可能的经济上限的方法应简单易用，同时能够应对不断发展的技术、成本和电网管理策略。本文提出了两个这样的模型，这两个模型都使用了历史风型数据，但采用不同的方法来估计作为风电场规模函数的风脱落程度。从模型中可以清楚地看出，随着风力发电机组规模的增加，风力减排量将逐渐增加，因此风力发电机组的整体经济效率将降低。这些模型提供了几乎相同的效率损失预测，并表明未来风电机组的经济上限将主要由风电机组净空决定，本文对此进行了详细描述。结果应具有普遍适用性，以图形形式呈现，应避免使用原始数据进行进一步建模。本文还讨论了风力发电机组在电网脱碳方面的有效性，以及风力发电机组和太阳能发电机组作为英国电能来源之间日益激烈的竞争。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：General Economics        一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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