英文标题：
《Does the short-term boost of renewable energies guarantee their stable
  long-term growth? Assessment of the dynamics of feed-in tariff policy》
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作者：
Milad Mousavian H. (1), Hamed Shakouri G. (1), Alinaghi Mashayekhi
  (2), Aliyeh Kazemi (3) ((1) School of Industrial and Systems Engineering,
  University of Tehran, Iran (2) Graduate School of Management and Economics,
  Sharif University of Technology, Iran (3) Department of Industrial
  Management, University of Tehran, Iran)
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最新提交年份：
2019
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英文摘要：
  Feed in tariff (FiT) is one of the most efficient ways that many governments throughout the world use to stimulate investment in renewable energies (REs) technology. For governments, financial management of the policy is very challenging as that it needs a considerable amount of budget to support RE producers during the long remuneration period. In this paper, we illuminate that the early growth of REs capacity could be a temporary boost and the system elements would backlash the policy if financial circumstances are not handled well. To show this, we chose Iran as the case, which is in the infancy period of FiT implementation. Iran started the implementation of FiT policy in 2015 aiming to achieve 5 GW of renewable capacity until 2021. Analyses show that the probable financial crisis will not only lead to inefficient REs development after the target time (2021), but may also cause the existing plants to fail. Social tolerance for paying REs tax and potential investors trust emanated from budget related mechanisms are taken into consideration in the system dynamics model developed in this research to reflect those financial effects, which have rarely been considered in the previous researches. To prevent the financial crisis of the FiT funding and to maintain the stable growth in long term, three policy scenarios are analyzed: continuation of the current program with higher FiT rates, adjusting the FiT rates based on the budget status, and adjusting the tax on electricity consumption for the development of REs based on the budget status. The results demonstrate that adjusting the tax on electricity consumption for the development of REs based on budget status leads to the best policy result for a desired installed capacity development without any negative social effects and financial crises.
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中文摘要：
上网电价（FiT）是世界各地许多政府用来刺激可再生能源（REs）技术投资的最有效方式之一。对于政府来说，该政策的财务管理非常具有挑战性，因为它需要大量预算来支持长期薪酬期间的再生产者。在本文中，我们阐明，如果金融环境得不到妥善处理，可再生能源产能的早期增长可能只是暂时的提振，而系统因素会对政策产生抵触。为了说明这一点，我们选择伊朗作为案例，该国正处于FiT实施的初期。伊朗于2015年开始实施FiT政策，目标是在2021之前实现5 GW的可再生能源发电能力。分析表明，可能发生的金融危机不仅会导致目标时间（2021）后可再生能源开发效率低下，还可能导致现有电厂倒闭。在本研究开发的系统动力学模型中，考虑了社会对缴纳REs税的容忍度以及预算相关机制产生的潜在投资者信任，以反映这些财务影响，这在以前的研究中很少被考虑。为防止FiT资金的金融危机并保持长期稳定增长，分析了三种政策情景：以更高的FiT率继续当前计划，根据预算状况调整FiT率，以及根据预算状况调整可再生能源开发的用电量税。结果表明，根据预算状况调整可再生能源开发的电力消费税，可以在没有任何负面社会影响和金融危机的情况下，获得理想的装机容量发展的最佳政策结果。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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