本期摘要：

1.估计年内美国生产活动的增长不会导致通胀担忧加剧，我们认为美国国债价格的上行惯性可能继续。弱势美元对美国经济复苏有利。
2. 希腊内阁重组的正面消息和默克尔/萨科奇关于商讨希腊问题的会议使得欧元迅速回升到1.4300上方。希腊CDS水平从历史高点回落。欧元下行将面临一系列技术支撑位，估计可能重复5月中旬至6月中旬的区间波动态势。
3. 过去三个月，在美元广泛疲弱下，日元却基本维持相同水平。有观点认为这是日本的结构性缺陷拖累日元的证据。但我们认为，日元的表现是受临时因素的干扰，预计美元兑日元将在年内创下新低。
4. 本周央行每月一度的存款准备金提升如期而至，存款准备金再度被上调0.5%。此次准备金上调的决定显然和公布的五月份的CPI同比5.5%的增长相关。本次准备金提升也同时表明下一次加息可能会在七月中旬公布六月CPI数据时，我们认为这也将会是本年度最后一次加息。我们认为六月份的通货膨胀同比增长可能达到6.2的水平。
5. 我们预计大宗商品价格，特别是能源和工业金属价格在短期内仍将维持目前的疲弱态势。然而，相对疲弱的美国经济数据以及美联储可能在2012年以前都不会采取紧缩政策的预期，仍将使得贵金属特别是黄金的价格维持在高位。上海交易所以及上海保税仓库铜库存水平的下降，将在短期对铜价形成一定支撑。
Highlights of this Week:
1. We believe the bullish momentum in US rates is likely to  continue. 10s could trade towards or even through 2.75% on possible further evidence of a slowing economy and headline risks on European debt crisis.
2. In Friday's NY session, The euro continued its sharp recovery on further positive news from the Greek cabinet reshuffle and the Merkel/Saroksy meeting with the euro reaching a 1.4340 high. 5 year Greek sovereign CDS fell from the historical high. Eur would meet a series of technical support going further down, and we may see the same range movement patter continuing in the next 3-4 weeks.
3. The resistance of the JPY to broad-based dollar weakness over the last three months is a more intriguing question. Some have suggested this is evidence of the structural weaknesses plaguing the yen. We don’t agree, and think yen underperformance should be also viewed in the context of temporary factors. We continued to expect USD/JPY to make new lows by year end.
4. The PBOC decided to raise the reserve requirement ratio by another 0.5% this week. The RRR hike suggests that the next rate hike (and the last hike this year in our view) is more likely to take place in mid-July, when June CPI (at around 6.2%yoy according to our forecast) is released.  
5. We expect the commodity complex and specifically the energy and industrial metals sectors will remain vulnerable in the short term. This reflects the possibility of further downgrades to US GDP growth and ongoing monetary tightening in China. However, weak real economy data in the US and a likely delay in Fed tightening until early 2012 will allow further gains in precious metal prices and specifically gold.We also believe declining inventory levels on the SHFE as well as the Shanghai bonded warehouses will support copper prices