DB Wkly Market Update 20110904_EN.pdf
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DB Wkly Market Update 20110904_CN.pdf
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本期摘要：
* 周五的美国非农就业报告数据非常惨淡, 8月非农就业岗位没有增长,远低于市场预期。美国经济依然堪忧，我们对2011年美国GDP增长率的预测调低为1.7％。

*  本周公布的欧洲PMI数据流疲弱，我们对2011年欧元区的GDP增长的预测调低为1.7％。其中，德国的增长预期接近3％，将成为对欧元区生产总值增长贡献最大的国家。而周边国家可能仍然停留在经济衰退（如希腊、葡萄牙等国），或微弱增长（如意大利和西班牙）的状态。
  
* 本周欧元兑美元回落，但按照传统的欧元驱动因素来衡量，欧元兑美元仍处于相当高位。我们认为，欧元/美元的趋势仍然与欧元区与美国相对货币总量增长一致，在美国没有减少货币供应量迹象的情况下，欧元/美元短期内可能还是会持续区间波动，在1.40或略低的水平受到支持，但维持中长期看低欧元的观点。

* 继李克强在月末访港宣布支持香港离岸人民币中心的发展措施后，香港特区政府强调，当局正争取人民币FDI（外商直接投资）于本月落实。我们认为，这将为离岸人民币投资开拓了渠道，将会吸引更多的跨国企业在香港发行人民币债券。但如何在建立起香港的人民币投资市场，才是发展人民币离岸市场的关键。

* 周五的非农就业数据报出以后，金价已重新站上接近1900的高位。我们认为，支持黄金上涨的基本面没有改变，并维持看多黄金到2000美元的观点不变 Highlights of The Week:

* The August employment report showed an already feeble labor market shuddering under mounting economic uncertainty. Our outlook for US GDP growth has been marked down by about a percentage point this year and next to an average rate over the next year and a half that is about in line with its longer-term trend of about 2.5%.

* We have revised down our Euroland GDP growth forecast for 2011 to 1.7% from 1.9% before. Euro area GDP growth is expected to slow sharply to 0.8% in 2012 as fiscal policy contraction takes its toll on Southern European countries and Germany feels the effects of lower global growth.

* The Ministry of Commerce released a draft regulation of RMB FDI and is soliciting public feedback till September 20th. While providing more channels for RMB recycling mechanism is an important in satisfying the market demand for more RMB assets, it does cause RMB inflow back onshore, adding pressure for domestic liquidity, which is not the goal of RMB “going out” or RMB internationalization. We believe it is more critical for HK to develop offshore RMB financial products for sustained growth of offshore RMB market

* The slump in European business confidence during August raises the possibility that GDP growth has stagnated and even the possibility of the region moving back into recession. We believe any further deterioration in the growth outlook would run the risk of a fresh wave of sovereign downgrades in this region. We would expect will sustain the bullish outlook for gold