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20110703 Follow me 54 wallace_w
wallace_w
3536 27
2011-07-03
Economics focus
Some like it hot
Which emerging economies are at greatest risk of overheating?

WHEN the term “emerging markets” was coined 30 years ago by Antoine van Agtmael, then at the World Bank, these economies accounted for one-third of global GDP (measured at purchasing-power parity). Now they make up more than half. More dramatic still, emerging markets produced more than four-fifths of global real GDP growth over the past five years.

Important though these countries are, many commentators still tend to lump them together in a way they never would with developed economies. Headlines about rising inflation, rampant bank lending and a flood of capital inflows might appear to suggest that virtually all emerging economies are overheating. In reality, some are red-hot and others are only lukewarm. An analysis by The Economist tries to identify the hottest spots.

The chart shows our ranking of 27 emerging economies according to their risk of overheating. We take each economy’s temperature using six different indicators.The scores from these indicators are then summed to produce an overall index;100 means that an economy is red-hot on all six measures.

Start with inflation. This has jumped more sharply in emerging economies than in the developed world, to an estimated average rate of 6.7% in May. But it ranges from a modest 1.7% in Taiwan to 20% or more in Vietnam, Venezuela and Argentina(using private-sector estimates for the latter rather than the government’ slower but dubious figure). Most of the pickup in inflation over the past year was due to higher food prices, which have a bigger share of the consumer-price basket than in rich countries. So if food prices stabilise, headline inflation will fall later this year. In China core inflation (excluding food and energy)is only 2.4%, but it is a more worrying 5.5% in Brazil and over 8% in India.Where growth is bumping up against capacity constraints and labour markets are tight, food inflation may spill over into wages and other prices.

Spare room

Our second indicator tries to gauge spare capacity by comparing a country’s average GDP growth rate since 2007 with its growth rate in the previous ten years.Growth has exceeded its long-term trend in Argentina, Brazil, India and Indonesia, but is well below trend (suggesting ample spare capacity) in Hungary, the Czech Republic, Russia and South Africa. China’s growth has also been slightly below trend. An economy’s potential growth rate may have increased over time, thanks to reforms. However, tight labour markets (our third indicator) confirm that several economies have been growing unsustainably fast. In Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia and Hong Kong unemployment is well below its ten-year average. Brazil’s jobless rate is at a record low and wages areaccelerating.

The fourth symptom of overheating, and one of the most important, is excessive credit expansion, which can lead to asset bubbles as well as inflation. The best measure of excess credit is the difference between the growth rate in bank credit and nominal GDP. It is normal for bank lending to grow a bit faster than GDP in an emerging economy as the financial sector develops, but credit is outpacing GDP by an alarming margin in Argentina, Brazil, Hong Kong and Turkey.Lending to the private sector has increased by around 20% more than nominal GDP over the past year in both Turkey and Hong Kong. But not all emerging economies are a wash with liquidity. In ten of the 27 countries, including Russia, SouthAfrica, Egypt and Chile, credit is growing more slowly than GDP. The growth rate in China’s bank lending has halved over the past year or so, and is now broadly in line with GDP growth.

Our fifth indicator is the real rate of interest, which is negative in over half of the economies. That may be appropriate where demand is weak but in rapidly growing economies, such as Argentina, India, Vietnam and Hong Kong, negative real rates are fuelling faster credit growth and inflation. At the other extreme, Brazil’s real interest rate of almost 6% is among the highest in the world. China’s benchmark lending rate is slightly positive but this understates the extent of its recent monetary tightening: the central bank has also sharply raised banks’ reserve requirements and capped credit growth.

Mercury rising

Our final temperature gauge is the external balance. A widening current-account deficit can be a classic sign of overheating, as domestic demand out paces supply.Turkey looks particularly worrying, with its deficit expected to jump to 8% of GDP this year, up from 2% in 2009. Rising current-account deficits in Brazil and India also suggest domestic demand is growing too fast.

Adding up the six scores reveals seven hot spots where most of the indicators are flashing red: Argentina, Brazil, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Turkey and Vietnam.Argentina is the only economy where all six indicators are on red, but Brazil and India are not far behind. China, often the focus of concerns about overheating, is well down the rankings in the amber zone, partly thanks to more aggressive monetary tightening. Russia, Mexico and South Africa are in the green zone, suggesting little risk of overheating.

Red-hot economies with negative real interest rates need to raise them. Fiscal policyis also too loose in many places. Budget deficits have been reduced slightly since 2009 but this is largely because strong growth has boosted tax revenues.On a general-government definition, six of the seven are still running quite large deficits (8% of GDP in India, for example); only Hong Kong’s governmentis in surplus. Given that their economies are booming, all of them should arguably be running a surplus. Drivers who ignore red warning lights on the dashboard risk a serious breakdown.
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wallace_w
2011-7-3 06:47:33
经济聚焦

数据表明某些国家经济过热

哪些新型经济体面临的经济过热风险最大

当30年前世界银行经济学家Antoine van Agtmael提出“新兴市场”这个词时，这些经济体只占全球GDP的三分之一（以购买力平价计算）。而今，这一数字已经到了50%多。更加戏剧性的是，在过去的五年中新兴市场生产了全球实际GDP的五分之四还多。
尽管这些国家十分重要，但是很多评论员仍然试图将他们同发达经济体放在一起，这是他们从来没有面对过的事情。关于不断增长的通货膨胀，毫无节制的银行信贷以及大量资本涌入的报道或许表明所有的新兴经济体实际上都处于经济过热的状态。实际上，只有一些国家的经济过热而其他一些国家的经济只是稍微过热。经济学人的一份报告试图找出那些经济过热的国家。
下面的图表显示了我们根据经济过热风险对27个新兴经济体的排名。我们通过6个不同的指标来度量每个经济体的经济过热程度。然后，我们再把根据这些指标得出来的分数进行加总以得到总的指数；100意味着所有六个指标都表明该经济体处于经济过热状态。



首先来看通货膨胀。新兴经济体的这一指标比发达国家高出很多，据估计发展中国家5月份的平均通胀率达到了6.7%的水平。但是，这一指标的跨度从台湾1.7%的温和水平到越南、委内瑞拉和阿根廷20%的水平不等（这些数据都是根据私人部门的统计结果做出的而不是ZF部门较低的但是值得怀疑的数据）。过去几年大多数通货膨胀都是由于食品价格的上涨造成的，食品在这些国家消费者篮子中所占的比重高于发达国家。所以，如果食品价格稳定，备受关注的通胀将在年底回落。中国的核心通胀水平（剔除食物和能源的通胀）只有2.4%，但是巴西和印度比较令人担忧，他们的核心通胀水平分别达到了5.5%和8%。当经济增长面临产能限制和劳动力市场紧张时，由于食品引起的通胀可能会蔓延至工资水平以及其他商品的价格。


闲置产能

我们的第二个指标试图通过比较一个国家自2007年的平均GDP增长率和过去十年的增长水平来评估其闲置产能。阿根廷、巴西、印度和印度尼西亚的增长率超过了其长期增长趋势，但是匈牙利、捷克共和国，俄罗斯和南非的水平低于其长期趋势（表现出了大量的闲置产能）。中国的增长水平也稍微低于其长期趋势。伴随着经济改革，各经济体的潜在经济增长率或许会有所提高。但是，紧张的劳动力市场（我们的第三个指标）表明几个国家的经济增长速度过快并且是不可持续的。阿根廷、巴西、印度尼西亚和香港的失业率都低于其十年的平均水平。巴西的失业率处于历史最低水平并且工资正迅速上涨。
经济过热的第四个症状，同样是最重要的症状是信贷过度膨胀，它可以导致资产泡沫和通货膨胀。度量信贷过度膨胀的最好指标就是信贷增长率和名义GDP增长率的差额。随着金融业的发展，新兴经济体中银行信贷的增长比GDP的增长稍快是正常的，但是阿根廷、巴西、香港和土耳其的信贷增长大大高于GDP,并且已经达到了危险水平。在过去的一年中，土耳其和香港的私人部门借款比名义GDP高20%多。但并不是所有的新兴经济体都面临流动性泛滥的问题。在调查的27个国家中，包括俄罗斯，南非，埃及和智利在内的十个国家的信贷增长慢于GDP。过去的一年中中国银行贷款的增长率已经减半，现在基本和GDP增长率持平。
我们的第五个指标是实际利率，新型经济体中超过半数的国家这一指标为负值。在需求疲软的国家这或许是合适的，但是在像阿根廷、印度、越南和香港这样快速增长的经济体中，负的实际率无异于过快的信贷增长和通货膨胀火上浇油。另一个极端是巴西，它的实际利率达到了6%位于世界上实际利率最高的国家之列。中国的基准利率为正值，但这并没有考虑最近的货币紧缩政策：央行大大提高了银行准备金水平并且限制信贷增长。

经济过热

我们的最后一个指标是外部平衡。由于国内需求不足，经常账户赤字是经济过热的重要标志。土耳其的经常账户赤字从2009年占GDP2%的水平增长到今年占GDP8%的水平，这无疑会令人担心。巴西和印度经常账户赤字的不断增加也表明国内需求增长的过快。
加总这六个数据之后表明有七个国家经济过热，这些国家的大多数指标都处于过热状态，他们是：阿根廷、巴西、香港、印度、印度尼西亚、土耳其和越南。阿根廷是唯一一个所有六个指标都显示经济过热的国家，但是巴西和印度紧随其后。通常是经济过热焦点的中国由于严厉的货币紧缩政策位于排名的下部琥珀色区域。俄罗斯、墨西哥和南亚处于绿色区域，表明经济过热的风险极小。
那些实际利率为负的经济过热的国家需要提高他们的利率。很多国家的财政政策也过于宽松。虽然自2009年以来预算赤字有所减少，但主要是强劲的经济增长提高了税收所致。即使按照一般ZF收支标准的定义，这七个国家中的六个的赤字水平仍然较高（例如，印度的财政赤字占GDP的8%）；只有香港ZF有财政盈余。考虑到这些经济体正在迅速增长，他们应该有财政盈余。那些忽视仪表盘警告的驾驶者将面临经济崩溃的风险。
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bengdi1986
2011-7-3 06:54:29
"spaceroom "and "mercuryrising " that I think should be divided! It's up to you, after all ,I havn't read the original  paper. you can correct them by yourself !
This topic is a good topic!!
呵呵，好久不见楼主了
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wallace_w
2011-7-3 06:56:58
3# bengdi1986 非常感谢，我编辑的时候是分开的 ，不知道为什么 又成一个单词了。
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浆声何处
2011-7-3 07:31:20
要认真看看滴~
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zhang533744
2011-7-3 07:33:24
54，54我是沙发吗？
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