DBS 瑞银：中国银行业 (含所有上市银行分析估值)

China Banking,A good proxy for China growth

(含所有上市银行分析估值) China Banking 2007

100页 4.42M 01.02

2 January 2007 .pdf

􀂾 Strong 3Q06 results, expectation of no severe austerity measures at least until 2Q07 (except some mild
rate hikes) and high prices paid in recent M&A deals by foreign banks are positive to the share prices of
banks. Potential announcement of income tax rate cut in 1Q07 as well as BoComm’s and China Life’s plans for A-share listing have also been the share price catalysts recently. Asset quality should remain good, as the monetary stance is accommodative. A mild rate hike is in fact slightly positive to banks’ NIM. This coupled with under-penetration in consumer banking, continued growth in corporate earnings and regulatory
relaxation for diversification into non-interest income should continue to bode well for long-term fundamentals of the sector. In spite of recent run in the share prices, the valuation of H-share

Table of Contents
Investment Summary 3
A good proxy for China growth 5
Favourable macroeconomic environment 5
Property market outlook remains bullish 8
Under-penetrated consumer banking and wealth
management 10
Favourable regulatory developments &
infrastructure 14
Significant positives of tax reform 14
Regulations encourage banks to expand their fee income 19
Stock selection criteria 22
Asset quality is the most important criteria 23
Corporate banking franchise 34
Tap into underdeveloped consumer banking and property
boom 43
Profitability and efficiency 57
Growth prospects 67
Valuation 71
Appendix I: Comparison of key performance indicators 72
Appendix II: Key austerity measures towards the property
market 75
Appendix III: IPO details of Chinese banks 77
Appendix IV: Market positions of China banks (Dec-2005) 78
Appendix V: Competitive landscape of China Banking
Sector (Dec 2005) 79
Appendix VI: Valuation comparison 80
Appendix VII: CMB’s key debit and credit card products 81
Stock Profiles 82
ICBC 　82
Bank of China 84
China Construction Bank 86
Bank of Communications 88
China Merchants Bank 90
Bank of East Asia 92
CITIC International Financial 94

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-1-19 20:35:56编辑过]