Ireland’sdebt burden

爱尔兰的债务负担

The many stagesof grief

爱尔兰经历悲伤的各个阶段

The government’sbattle to earn respite over its bank bail-outs

爱尔兰ZF的战斗：为银行救助计划赢得喘息的机会

AS SLOGANS go,“restructure the promissory-notes repayment schedule” doesn’t have quite thesame tub-thumping ring as “burn the bondholders”. But as Ireland has moved fromthe anger to the bargaining stage of economic grief, it has realised thatcoming to a deal  over  31 billion Euro($41 billion) in promissory noteswhich the government issued to two failing banks is more important thandefaulting on their remaining unsecured bondholders.
就口号而言， “重新确定偿还本票时间表”听起来就不如“把要债的全都烧得死光光”那么慷慨激昂。庆幸的是，爱尔兰在经济上的悲伤情绪已经走出了愤怒阶段，目前正朝着协商的方向发展。该国ZF已意识到，尽快与无担保债券持有人达成新的借款协议比债务违约更重要。爱尔兰ZF曾经向两家经营不善的银行签发了价值310亿欧元（约410美元）的本票，便是这笔借款的具体用途。

In 2008 Ireland’s previous government said it would stand behind the debts ofthe country’s tottering banks. In 2010, as that rash pledge worked itself out,it issued a series of promissory notes (essentially IOUs with set paymentdates) to what is now the Irish Bank Resolution Corporation (IBRC), a merger ofIrish Nationwide Building Society and the far larger Anglo Irish. Cut off frommarkets and short of decent collateral that could be pledged directly with theEuropean Central Bank (ECB), the IBRC used the promissory notes to secureaccess to emergency funding from Ireland’s central bank. The government’sschedule of promised payments will be used to pay back the central bank’sloans.
回到2008年，前任爱尔兰ZF在该国银行业摇摇欲坠之际，发出了ZF就是银行债务坚实后盾的豪言。等到了2010年，当初匆匆忙忙作的承诺便到了兑现时刻，ZF向爱尔兰全国建筑协会以及规模更大的盎格鲁-爱尔兰银行签发了一系列本票（本质上是一种有固定付息日的借据），这两家银行后来合并成为Irish Bank Resolution Corporation (IBRC)。该银行成立后无法从债券市场融资；又欠缺像样的抵押品，不能直接从欧洲中央银行（ECB）获得借款。这种情形下，IBRC用ZF签发的本票作抵押，获得了爱尔兰中央银行的应急资金。这笔资金归还的时间表将参照ZF偿还欧洲中央银行贷款的时间表进行。

That schedule is punishing. The government is on the hook for  

3.1 billion  Euro every year until 2023, with smaller annual outlays due until 2031. This year’s sum, due on March 31st, represents around 2% of GDP. From next year interest payments on the debt are due to be counted against the budget balance. To meet its deficit targets the government will have to make further cuts. Hence rising pressure in Dublin for a deal to restructure the payments.
爱尔兰ZF现在债务缠身，要做到按期还款会十分吃力。它每年要偿还的金额是31亿欧元，2023年以后会略有下降，直到2031年将借款还清为止。今年的还款在3月31日到期，总数大约占到了该国GDP的2%。从明年起，受利息支出的影响，ZF预算平衡的目标将难以实现。为了满足赤字目标的要求，ZF不得不削减更多的开支。不断上升的债务压力正迫使都柏林ZF谋求达成一项重组债务的交易。

That requires the nod from Frankfurt. Ireland’s central bank needed permission from the ECB to issue its loans to the IBRC, and any change to the terms of the repayment must also have ECB approval. As The Economist went to press Michael Noonan, the Irish finance minister, was hopeful of securing agreement from the ECB to swap the cash payment due this month for a government bond with a 13-year maturity.
法兰克福方面的同意将不可或缺。首先，爱尔兰央行只有得到欧洲央行的许可，才能向IBRC发放贷款；其次，偿还协议任何条款的修改也需要欧洲央行的批准。在本期《经济学人》付梓时，爱尔兰财长迈克尔•努南表示说他有信心谋求与欧洲央行达成协议，将本月的现金还款置换成13年期的ZF公债。

That agreement may not be forthcoming: any restructuring risks exacerbating tensions on the ECB’s governing council between Mario Draghi, the bank’s president, and Jens Weidmann, head of the Bundesbank. But a deal would in any case offer only temporary respite. A more lasting solution might be to replace the promissory notes with longer-term bonds from the European Financial Stability Facility, the euro zone’s temporary bail-out fund. But that would also mean adding to Ireland’s rescue programme, an unappealing prospect for euro-zone member states fresh from patching up Greece.
这项协议的达成或许不会一帆风顺：债务重组会加剧欧洲央行管理委员会内部的紧张局势，欧洲央行行长德拉吉和德国央行行长魏德曼之间的关系有可能因此进一步恶化。更何况，这样一笔交易无论怎么看都不过是治标不治本。欧洲金融稳定基金（欧元区的临时性救助基金）发行长期债券来替换这笔期限较短的银行本票，或许能一劳永逸地解决这个问题。但是，拯救希腊的前车之鉴仍令欧元区各国记忆犹新，对他们来说，再增加一个爱尔兰援助计划可不是什么美妙的前景。

Lurking behind all this is an Irish referendum, expected in May or June, on the “fiscal compact”, an agreement to enshrine budgetary discipline in the euro zone. Although they publicly forswear a link between the referendum and the promissory notes, ministers know that a deal with the ECB would help them win—and they know that their fellow Europeans know this too. Moreover, say officials, an easier ride on the debt repayment would be the best way to help ensure Ireland returns to the markets next year, as scheduled.
债务的背后还隐藏着的另一个问题。爱尔兰预计在今年五月或六月举行全民公投，以决定是否接受一项旨在加强欧元区预算纪律的“财政契约”。尽管爱尔兰的部长们公开承诺不会将公投和重组本票联系起来，但他们明白与欧洲央行达成债务重组交易会有助于公投的顺利通过——他们的欧洲同事们也同样心知肚明。官员们还说，更轻松的债务偿还方式将有利于爱尔兰在明年如期重返债券市场。

But Ireland’s leverage is nonetheless limited. The fiscal compact does not require unanimous euro-zone adoption to become law, and a “no” vote would make Ireland ineligible for money from the European Stability Mechanism, the single currency’s planned permanent rescue fund.
尽管如此，爱尔兰可供谈判用的筹码十分有限。一方面，新的财政契约在法律上生效并不需要欧元区各国的一致同意；另一方面，如果爱尔兰否决了该协议，它就丧失了从欧洲金融稳定机制（ESM）获得资金援助的资格。按照计划安排，欧洲金融稳定机制将成为欧元这一单一货币的永久性救助基金。

If Mr Noonan’s plan comes off it will be quite a coup. But it will still be no more than a can-kicking exercise. At some point Ireland will have to move from the bargaining stage to acceptance. The problem is that in between the two lies depression.
如果努曼的计划得以成功，那将是极为难得的成就。可即便如此，他的努力也不过是在拖延时间罢了。终有一天，爱尔兰的态度会从协商转向接受。不过问题是，在穿越这两个阶段的中间，一个经济衰退的阶段将不可避免。