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20120329 Follow Me 322 A turn in the cycle?
mu_lianzheng
3864 25
2012-03-28
各位好，3月28日的Follow Me位置如下：https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-1402582-1-1.html
由于一些原因，这篇文章没有加入每日的限时精华，很多人误解当天没有发Follow Me,造成了一定的负面影响，在此向各位致歉，估计是因为前2天的文章没有发完整，所以28日的文章没有加入限时精华
3月29日的文章如下：

Financial markets
金融市场
A turn in the cycle?
经济周期拐点？

ARE we witnessing one of those historic turning points in markets, on a par with March 2000 (when the dotcom bubble burst) or March 2009 (the post-Lehman low)? The issue is not so much with equities which are continuing the stop-start recovery that has lasted for three years. The interesting issue is the bond market which (as a regular commenter astutely noted on the last post) has seen a steady decline, taking the 10-year Treasury yield to a five-month high. Gold is also weaker, down at around $1640 an ounce, and a long way below the $1900 peak reached last year.
我们是否正在目睹一个与2000年3月（互联网产业泡沫）、２００９年３月（后雷曼时期的低谷）一样历史性的市场拐点？这与已经停滞不前三年多的股票没多大关系。有趣的是债券市场，债券市场表现出了持续的下跌，10年期美国国债收益竟创出了5个月来的新高。金价也很疲软，每盎司降到了1640美元左右，远低于去年1900美元的顶峰。

Treasury yields have been falling for around 30 years, first as the great inflation of the 1970s was eliminated, then as deflation fears set in, and then finally in the face of quantitative easing. If we are heading for a Japanese scenario, they could fall further, to 1% or so.
美国国债收益率已经跌了差不多30年了，首先是因为70年代大通胀的消除，其次是对通货紧缩恐惧的深入骨髓，最后就是量化宽松了。如果我们照着日本的剧本走下去，这些收益率跌得就更狠了，差不多得到1%。

But the mood seems to be that the US economy seems to be managing a decent, if not electrifying, recovery. As a result, the Fed seems less likely to have a mandate for more QE, as yesterday's Fed minutes indicated. the danger is that the entire support for the bond market (low rates till 2014 as well as central bank purchases) might be removed. At ING, Rob Carnell, chief international economist, comments that
不过从氛围看，如果不算是惊人的话，美国经济得到了相当不错的恢复。根据昨天美联储的会议纪要显示，结果是美联储看起来不太愿意实施更多的量化宽松政策。这样做的危险在于，国债市场的所有支柱——延长至2014年的低息和央行持续购买（国债）将被撤掉，ＩＮＧ首席经济学家，Rob Carnel评论说：

Markets are beginning to (rightly in our opinion) view the Fed's commitment on Fed funds as a worthless promise, and price futures markets accordingly.
市场现在开始把联储对于联储基金使用的承诺当作无用的许诺，并以此对未来市场进行评估。

While Alan Ruskin of Deutsche Bank says the market context is similar to that of 1993, the end of another period when the Fed had suppressed rates to bail out the financial sector.
然而，德意志银行的Alan Ruskin说，现在的市场情形与93年相似，93年是美联储降低基准利率为金融系统抒困的另一时期的末尾。

the biggest single concern is the worry that we will relive a period of bond market turmoil, that accompanied the Fed's tightening from the 3% funds rate low at the time. Back in 1992-3, the Fed was not artificially suppressing bond market volatility in the way it is today, but the market became used to what was seen as an unusually long period of steady very low interest rates. This time around we have not only had an even more prolonged period of low rates that will not change soon, but the direct 'intervention' of long-end bond purchases.
我们将要重新度过一段债券市场动荡的日子，到时也会伴随着联储把联邦基金利率从3%降得更低，为此担忧是我们最大的，也是唯一的困扰。让我们回到92年3月，当时联储没有像现在这样人为地减小债券市场的波动性，不过市场适应了一段相当长的低迷利率。这次，我们不仅会有一段拖得更长得低息时期，而且还要忍受购买递减付息债券的直接“干预”。

It is too early, of course, to be sure that the trend has changed decisively. We still need to remember that much of Europe is flirting with recession and the impact of higher oil prices could also sandbag the recovery. A very sharp rise in bond yields could be bad news for growth on its own.
当然，确信形式已经急转直下是有点太早了。我还是要记住，欧洲多国还在与衰退纠缠，高油价仍在阻碍经济复苏。债券收益率的猛增自身也会成为经济增长的恶兆。

A final thought. You can view the reaction of the authorities to events post-2008 as the frantic activity of a one-armed waiter trying to serve a full restaurant on his own. They have just about avoided a smash, although in Europe it has been a close-run thing. But they are still balancing a lot of plates, trying to keep bond yields and short rates down and equity markets up while simultaneously manipulating exchange rates.
最后，你可以把各国当局对于08年后事态的反应当作是这样一种疯狂的举动：个个都像是想要独力为整个酒店服务独臂侍者。他们是堪堪躲过了厄运的突袭，但在欧洲, 厄运则是紧追不舍。不但如此，他们还要平衡好很多盘子——试着把债券收益率和短期利率放低，把股票市场抬高，同时还要操控一把汇率。

PS:【30币一份】关于您使用“人大经济论坛”感受的问卷有奖调查

     https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-1403214-1-1.html








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风有灵性嘛！
2012-3-28 22:31:45
看看   最近的油价
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aibieli731001
2012-3-28 23:41:21
楼主辛苦。
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renda-ellipsis
2012-3-29 00:02:06
certain worries were aroused when I failed to see much vigorous respond to today's FOLLOW ME.   I am afraid that one day the routine of posting an article each day will be canceled. At that time, anyone of us will regret that we hadn't work the best we can when it was easier for us to do?  I mean if this routine were canceled, for those who still want to learn English and Economy, will it be harder for them to find articles themself?    For me,  many times in my life, when I could have done better, I hadn't,  after that, I have to sacrifice more to compensate.   So this kind of feeling occur to me again this moment.  Should I worry about the future of FOLLOW ME?  I think I am one of those who want to keep learning English and Economy.  So I do worry!!
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chiaolee
2012-3-29 07:35:39
每天都來看看, 看到一些觀點
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xiaoyuanxiao
2012-3-29 07:39:31
楼主辛苦，东西很好很有用
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