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3月31日文章如下：
Charlemagne查理曼
Still sickly复苏乏力
The euro zone’s illness is returning. A cure requires more integration, but Germany isn’t keen
欧元区危机重现。经济复苏需要推动一体化，但是德国缺乏热情。
WHEN the editors of the German tabloid Bild met Mario Draghi recently they gave him a Pick elhaube—a spiked helmet—to remind the Italian that they had last year depicted him in Prussian garb as the most Germanic of candidates to run the European Central Bank. It may come in useful: hardliners are taking shots at Mr Draghi for spraying banks with 1 trillion Euro (1.3 trillion Euro) of cheap money. This “powerful drug” may have side-effects, he says, but it works: “The worst is over” for the euro zone.
当最近德国《象》报的编辑们报道马里奥·德拉吉时，他们弄了个漫画——让马里奥·德拉吉头带一个尖顶头盔。以此给意大利人一个提醒，因为大多数欧洲央行的候选人都是德国人，意大利人去年曾把他画成一个穿普鲁士民族服饰的人。这种做法似乎收到了点效果：强硬派正指责德拉吉向银行提供10亿欧元（13亿美元）的低息贷款。德拉吉解释说，这剂“猛药”或许会产生一些副作用，但是确实收到了效果：欧元区“最危险的时刻已经过去”。
Don’t be so sure. The fever has been rising again in Spain after the government wildly overshot its deficit target last year. The Italian prime minister, Mario Monti, expressed alarm (which he later withdrew) that the Spanish illness might harm his own country’s convalescence. Portugal and Ireland are in recession, and may need second bail-outs; Greece will probably require a third rescue (and the restructuring of official debt).
不要轻易下结论。西班牙又发高烧了，去年该国ZF支出严重超过了之前的赤字目标。意大利总理马里奥·蒙蒂警告（稍后此警告被他撤回），西班牙的问题可能威胁到意大利的经济复苏。葡萄牙和爱尔兰也都在衰退之中，很可能需要二次救助；希腊或许需要第三次救助（并且需要ZF债务重组）。
As fear returns, so have calls to boost the euro zone’s rescue funds. “The mother of all firewalls should be in place, strong enough, broad enough, deep enough, tall enough—just big,” says Ángel Gurría, secretary-general of the OECD, the rich-world think-tank. But Germany prefers a slow, incremental response. The latest signal is that it will agree, at a meeting of finance ministers in Copenhagen on March 30th and 31st, to raise the firewall somewhat. The temporary rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), would be allowed to overlap with the permanent new European Stability Mechanism (ESM), which is to be activated this summer. By combining the two funds, perhaps only for a year, the lending capacity could be raised from 500 billion Euro to about 740 billion Euro.
恐慌再次出现，因此欧元区不得不提升救助基金额度。富裕世界智库成员，经合组织秘书长安吉尔·古利亚说：“所有防火墙的构建者都要就位，要够强，够广，够深，够高——总而言之，要大”。但是德国却对此给了一个缓慢的渐进式的回应，在3月30日至31日的哥本哈根财长会议后，德国最新的迹象是可能同意在某种程度上升级一下防火墙。临时救助基金会和欧洲财政稳定维持组织（EFSF），将会被新的永久性机构欧洲稳定机构（ESM）所取代，此机构将在今年夏天正式开始运作。通过组合这两大基金组织，可能只需一年，机构的借款能力就能从原来的5000亿欧元上升至740亿欧元。
This may be enough to persuade the Chinese, the Americans and others to allow the IMF to increase its resources, so helping the defences, but it is hardly the overwhelming force Mr Gurría seeks. Germany worries that reducing the pressure on weak states will lead to complacency. “The Germans think that the only way to make countries reform is to dangle them out of the window,” says one diplomat. “This only reinforces the belief in the markets that the euro zone is on the edge of disaster.”
这么做也许就能说服中国人、美国人和其他国家允许国际货币基金组织IMF增加用来帮助抵御风险的资源，但是离古利亚先生寻求的援助还相差甚远。德国人担心对弱国减轻压力的做法会导致它们满足现状。一位外交官说：“德国人认为唯一能够促使这些国家进行改革的方法是把它们从窗户边推下去，但这只会导致市场形成欧元区正处于灾难边缘的印象。”
One worrying sign for Germany was Spain’s partly successful attempt to loosen its deficit target this year. Another is growing trouble over the “fiscal compact”, a treaty signed by 25 European Union countries to toughen budget discipline. Ireland, with a history of awkward votes on EU treaties, holds a referendum on May 31st. The Socialist front-runner in the French presidential election, François Hollande, wants to renegotiate the deal to include more focus on growth. Germany’s opposition Social Democrats are making similar noises. In the Netherlands the opposition Labour Party—which is supposed to support the minority government on European issues—threatens to block ratification if the government imposes austerity to meet next year’s deficit target of 3% of GDP. (Ill-disciplined countries that have received a tongue-lashing from the Dutch are savouring the irony.)
一个让德国人烦恼的信号是，今年西班牙正在尝试放松它的赤字目标。另一个是因“财政条约”（此条约由25个欧盟成员国签署，达成紧缩预算原则）而引起的麻烦，爱尔兰（历史上对欧盟条约有着尴尬的投票历史）将在5月31日举行全民公爵。法国总统选举社会党领先候选人，佛兰克斯·贺兰德，希望重启谈判以更多关注经济增长。德国在野党社会民主党也对此持相同观点。荷兰在野党工党——被认为对欧洲事务持不关心态度，威胁ZF如将明年的财政赤字缩小到GDP的3%，将阻止议案通过（相比过去违规受到荷兰指责的国家，这本身是一个美妙的反讽）。
Even assuming all these difficulties are resolved, the fate of the euro will remain uncertain. Raising the firewall and ratifying the compact will address only some of the symptoms. A cure requires “treating the whole patient”, as set out recently in a clear-eyed paper by Jay Shambaugh for Brookings, an American think-tank. It says the euro zone is afflicted by three ills: a banking crisis, a sovereign-debt crisis and a growth crisis. Dealing with one often makes the others worse.
即使假设这些困难都被解决了，欧洲的前途命运依然不明朗。加强防火墙和批准救助条约仅仅能缓解一些症状而已。正如最近美国智库“小溪流”的杰伊·香博发表的一篇文章明确指出的那样，对欧洲进行实质性的治愈则需要“对付整个病人”。它说欧元区正在被三种疾病所困扰：一是金融危机，二是主权债务危机，三是增长危机，而处理其中一个问题经常会使得其他问题更加严重。
A big problem is that the euro zone is only partly integrated. Its members have given up economic tools, such as currency devaluation and monetary policy, yet lack “federal” instruments to cope with shocks. The problem is not so much the budget deficit (though Greece was certainly profligate) as the net foreign borrowing by all actors, public and private (say to finance a trade deficit). The euro zone has only small internal transfers, and its workers tend not to move far for work. Fiscal stimulus is impossible for most governments, given their indebtedness. Structural reforms to promote growth can take years to work.
一个大问题是欧元区仅仅是部分地统一，它的成员已经放弃了经济工具，如通货贬值和货币政策，但是缺乏“l联邦”机制应对打击。问题不是向外国人借贷（这些借贷既有ZF的也有私人的——因贸易逆差形成的）而形成如此之多的预算赤字（虽然希腊确实相当挥霍）。欧元区内部流动机制很少，它的工人们不愿意在远离家乡的地方工作。对于大部分ZF而言，因陷入债务危机，采取财政刺激措施也是不可能的。而对经济结构进行改革以促进经济增长，则需长年累月努力才能见效。
So redressing the imbalances must come through “internal devaluation”: bringing down real wages and prices relative to competitors. This was easier before 1991, when inflation around the world was higher, but has rarely been achieved since then (Hong Kong is one exception). With the ECB determined to keep inflation at around 2%, internal devaluation brings severe recession, even depression. And falling GDP wrecks the debt ratio.
因此，只能通过“内部货币贬值”来矫正不平衡状态：和竞争对手比较，降低实际工资和价格。这在1991年之前还比较容易，那时候全世界的通货膨胀都较高，但从那之后，几乎还没有国家能通过采取这种措施达到目的（香港是一个例外）。欧洲央行决定将通胀率控制在2%，这使得内部货币贬值带来严重的经济衰退，甚至导致经济大萧条。GDP的负增长还导致欧洲国家的负债比例更为严重。
Mr Shambaugh offers some advice. Deficit countries could cut payroll taxes to reduce labour costs and raise VAT to discourage imports; the effect would be magnified if surplus states did the opposite. Germany could help by stimulating its economy, or at least slowing down its budget consolidation. The ECB could let inflation run higher, especially in Germany, and could declare that it stands fully behind solvent sovereigns. The EFSF/ESM could recapitalise weak banks. A Europe-wide bank-deposit insurance scheme would help. Mutualising part of the national debts would create a risk-free European asset.
香博先生提供给了一些建议：赤字国家可以减免工薪收入的税款从而降低劳动成本，提高增值税以减少进口；如果生产过剩的国家采取相反的方式，这一政策的效果将会被放大；德国可以通过刺激自身经济增长或至少是放松预算约束来提供帮助；欧洲央行可以让通货膨胀走高（特别是在德国），并且可以宣告它能强力支持那些有偿付能力的主权国家；欧洲财政稳定组织或欧洲稳定机构也应向一些小银行注资；一个泛欧的银行存款储备保险计划也能对此提供一些帮助；对主权债务进行交互式的重组，将创造出一项无风险的欧洲资产。
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