citigroup 花旗：工商银行 深度报告

citigroup：Industrial and Commercial Bank of China　　

January 2007 | 22 pages

Citigroup Global Markets | Equity Research

We are initiating coverage of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC)
with a Hold/Low Risk (2L) rating and target price of HK$5.0 based on 3x 2008
BV. This suggests limited 12-month upside. ICBC is the largest commercial
bank in China in terms of assets (16.8%), loans (15.4%) and deposits (19.4%).
Our fair valuation is based on a three-stage Gordon Growth Model (GGM) that
assumes:
 A net profit CAGR of 34% to Rmb91bn with an ROAE of 16.8% in 2008 (from
14.6% in 2006E) due to strong pre-provision profit CAGR of 19%, reduction
in business tax rate to 3% from 2% and an effective tax rate of 24%. This
translates into a ROAE of 16.8% from 2007 to 2010 and a growth rate of
9.2% on a payout ratio of 45%.