CS 瑞士信贷第一波士顿：中国－通涨上扬、股市上涨、宏观调控风险加大

02.16 10页　　　英文

16 February 2007 Economics Research

• We expect CPI inflation to rise, led by food and wage growth. The government’s grain auctions have slowed the food price hikes but are unlikely to be sustained beyond the Chinese New Year given that inventories are low. We have revised our average CPI forecast up from 2% to 3% for 2007, and China has entered a period of negative real interest rates.
• Asset inflation is an even bigger concern. Interest rates are too low, so bank deposits continue to flow out to other asset classes, especially to the stock market. A-shares’ stock market PE looks stretched, but we argue that China’s valuation should be benchmarked against domestic interest rates, instead of global valuations, due to the country’s closed capital account.