Citigroup 花旗：中国2006年GDP增长10.7%源自消费与贸易

25-Jan-07 2页　　英文

Tightening policies in 2006 had improved internal imbalance at the cost of external
distortion. Although domestic consumption strengthened, weakening domestic
demand, alongside investment moderation increased the trade surplus significantly.
We continue to expect 6% appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar in 2007,
driven by the government’s effort to stabilize the external account. To tighten the
liquidity condition, the PBOC may raise reserve requirement two more times this
year. We also expect a policy rate hike in the first half of this year to curb credit
expansion, the asset bubble concern could push the expected hike from the second
quarter to the first quarter of this year.