将宏观观点转化为选股建议的工具
我们推出了一套基于宏观因素描绘、微观层面比较以及对商业周期各阶段投资分
析的自上而下选股框架，从而将宏观观点与微观投资建议相关联。
宏观和微观因素对于回报都非常重要
对于亚洲市场上市值占比 60%左右的股票而言，宏观因素（如全球经济增速、本
地经济增速和金融状况）都是重要的回报推动因素。此外，估值、每股盈利市场
共识预测调整以及技术性指标等微观因素也与随后 3个月的回报高度相关。
宏观 + 微观 = 超额收益
对于全球领先指标(GLI)中定义的四阶段商业周期，我们基于各阶段的宏观和微观
特征对股票进行筛选。回溯测试显示，采用这种方法获得的回报有望超过传统买
入/持有策略带来的回报。
In this report, we introduce a framework to help connect the macro environment to single stock selection.  Specifically, we believe this framework would be helpful to:   Formalize our existing top-down stock picking logic and approach in a disciplined  and statistically-tested manner that is also intuitively appealing   Better comprehend how macro factors influence individual stock returns and help connect macro trends to actionable stock ideas   Expand our implementation focus to include more single stock ideas as well as theme baskets and derivative overlays    Complement our sector analysts’ views and our bottom-up stock selection processes such as Asia-Pacific Conviction Lists and GS Sustain, which focus principally on operating returns and industry position   Provide a tool which can add further perspective to investors’ own stock selection processes The exhibit below summarizes the key building blocks and logic flow in this report.