LB 雷曼兄弟：每周亚太区经济报告(英文)

Asia Ex-Japan Weekly Economic Monitor

Global Economics 9 March 2007 17页

OVERVIEW: INDIA: THE HOT-POTATO CALLED “INFLATION” 2-3
We are more concerned about the trade deficit than inflation.
ASIA OUTLOOK: THREE POSSIBLE SURPRISES 4-5
Low inflation, a revival of investment and the Southeast Asian economies starting to shine.
CHINA OUTLOOK: TOWARDS MORE BALANCED GROWTH 6
We expect consumption to contribute more to economic growth and net exports to
contribute less, provided that current economic policies and reforms continue.
INDIA OUTLOOK: RISING POTENTIAL GROWTH 7
Overheating symptoms are mild relative to the take-off in India’s economic growth.
KOREA OUTLOOK: HEADING FOR SOFT LANDING, BUT RISKS REMAIN 8
Policy support is more likely to come from fiscal stimulus than from interest rate cuts.
DATA PREVIEW 12
A slew of Chinese data, particularly CPI, will be important in determining whether there
is a need for further policy tightening in the coming months. Indian industrial output
growth should slow while South Korea’s unemployment rate will likely tick up.
GLOBAL LETTER: RESPONSE AND RESPONSIBILITY 15
The policy responses being priced in after last week’s mini-shock seem appropriate.