Citigroup-澳大利亚银行业并购机会分析

See page 21 for Analyst Certification and Important Disclosures ADR Research

September 13, 2007

Australian Banks M&A Playbook

➤ With turmoil comes opportunity — the confluence of events currently impacting the sector
will change the industry status quo. While we expect the major banks to emerge stronger,
less diversified players will be weakened. The upshot of this will be increased M&A
activity. This report assesses the industry segments that may be targeted, as well as the
specific areas of interest for each major bank.
➤ Catalysts for change — the current liquidity crisis, combined with imminent Basel II
reforms, as well as CEO changes, are among several factors that will drive industry
change over the next few years.
➤ Major banks will emerge the winners — with well diversified funding capacity and likely
capital relief under Basel II, the majors are well positioned to take advantage of
opportunities as they arise.
➤ Mortgage manufacturers under pressure — increased funding costs, combined with the
Basel II free-kick accruing to banks, will threaten their business model. Other players
likely to suffer include building societies and regional banks.
➤ M&A is already on the rise — we’re seeing proposed regional bank mergers (BEN/ ADB), as
well as building society deals (BOQ) and mortgage aggregator acquisitions (CGF). The
latter deal is likely to trigger further consolidation as more lenders are likely to move to
secure platform space.