Journal of Banking & Finance Volume 31, Issue 10, Pages 2945-3250 (October 2007)

[内容介绍]:来自Journal of Banking & Finance

 1.Editorial Board
 
 2. The industrial organization of post-trade clearing and settlement
Pages 2945-2961
Alistair Milne

 The introduction to this special issue reviews the literature on the industrial organization of securities market clearing and settlement, covering institutional, theoretical, and empirical contributions, including both papers in this special issue and previous studies. Clearing and settlement is an important but under-researched network industry. Recent theoretical research has characterized the network externalities in clearing and settlement and explored the economic efficiency of various alternative industrial structures. Initial empirical research has identified substantial economies of both scale and scope and important interactions with trading platforms. More research is needed to elaborate these theoretical insights and improve our understanding of the economics of this major industry.  

 3.   Interlinking securities settlement systems: A strategic commitment?
Pages 2962-2977
Karlo Kauko

 Central securities depositories (CSDs) in Europe have opened mutual links, but most of them are seldom used. Why are idle links established? By allowing a foreign CSD to offer services through the link, the domestic CSD invites competition. By inviting competition the domestic CSD can commit itself not to charge monopoly fees for secondary market services. This enables it to charge higher fees for securities issuance in the primary market. It is shown that commitment via an idle link can be optimal for a profit maximising CSD. 
 

4.    Stock exchange business models and their operative performance
Pages 2978-3012
Baris Serifsoy

 In recent years stock exchanges have been increasingly diversifying their operations into related business areas such as derivatives trading, post-trading services and software sales. This trend can be observed most notably among profit-oriented trading venues. While the pursuit for diversification is likely to be driven by the attractiveness of these investment opportunities, it is yet an open question whether certain integration activities are also efficient, both from a social welfare and from the exchanges’ perspective. Academic contributions so far analyzed different business models primarily from the former perspective, whereas there is only little literature considering their impact on the exchange itself. By employing a panel data set of 28 stock exchanges for the years 1999–2003, we seek to shed light on this topic by comparing the technical efficiency and factor productivity of exchanges with different business models. Our findings suggest that exchanges that diversify into related activities are mostly less efficient than exchanges that remain focused on the cash market. In particular, we find no evidence that vertically integrated exchanges are more efficient. However, they seem to possess a substantially stronger factor productivity growth than other business models. We presume that integration activity comes at the cost of increased operational complexity which outweigh potential synergies between related activities and therefore leads to technical inefficiencies. Our findings contribute to the ongoing discussion about the drawbacks and merits of vertical integration. 
 

5.    Guess what: It’s the settlements! Vertical integration as a barrier to efficient exchange consolidation
Pages 3013-3033
Thorsten V. Köppl and Cyril Monnet

 Exchanges and other trading platforms are often vertically integrated to carry out trading and settlement as one operation. We show that these vertical silos can prevent the full realization of efficiency gains from horizontal consolidation of trading and settlement platforms. When costs of settlement are private information, a merger of vertical silos cannot be designed to always ensure efficient trading and settlement after the merger. We also show, however, that efficiency can be guaranteed either by merging the trading platforms and delegating the operation of settlement platforms to independent agents or by forcing competition across vertical silos through cross-listings. 

 6.   Settling for efficiency – A framework for the European securities transaction industry
Pages 3034-3057
Baris Serifsoy and Marco Weiß

 Despite a lot of restructuring and many innovations in recent years, the securities transaction industry in the European Union is still a highly inefficient and inconsistently configured system for cross-border transactions. This paper analyzes the functions performed, the institutions involved and the parameters concerned that shape market and ownership structure in the industry. Of particular interest are microeconomic incentives of the main players that can be in contradiction to social welfare. We develop a framework and analyze three consistent systems for the securities transaction industry in the EU that offer superior efficiency than the current, inefficient arrangement. Some policy advice is given to select the ‘best’ system for the Single European Financial Market. 

 7.    Cost efficiency in the European securities settlement and depository industry
Pages 3058-3079
Patrick Van Cayseele and Christophe Wuyts

 We examine whether the European settlement and custody institutions operate in an efficient way. To do this, we start from an analytically founded discussion regarding the activities performed by the operators in this sector. Based on the insights obtained, we estimate both a translog cost function and a constant elasticity of substitution – quadratic cost function. From the results obtained, there clearly are economies of scale in this industry. Moreover, also economies of scope between the activities performed are present. These findings imply that probably further consolidation is ahead, and that separating certain activities from others can only be done at a cost in terms of efficiency.  
 

 8.    Partial acquisitions, the acquisition probability hypothesis, and the abnormal returns to partial targets
Pages 3080-3101
Aigbe Akhigbe, Anna D. Martin and Ann Marie Whyte

 The acquisition of a partial stake in a target firm has been positively linked to the likelihood that the target will be involved in a follow on full acquisition involving either the original bidder or a third party bidder. Existing studies provide only suggestive evidence of this linkage by comparing the abnormal returns to partial targets that are ultimately acquired to those that are not. Using a sample of partial acquisitions, we identify characteristics that impact the probability of a full acquisition and provide a tangible link between partial target gains and the ex ante probability of acquisition. Partial targets experience positive announcement effects, and the gains are greater for subsequently acquired targets. Partial bids initiated by corporate bidders are more likely to result in a full acquisition, and the size of the acquired stake and the level of institutional ownership are positively linked to the probability of acquisition. Further, the partial target gains are positively linked to the ex ante probability of acquisition even after controlling for any increased monitoring and discipline that the partial bidder is expected to impose. The findings are robust across various time horizons and model specifications. 

 9.    Consumer expectations and short-horizon return predictability
Pages 3102-3124
Egon Kalotay, Philip Gray and Samantha Sin
 
 Lettau and Ludvigson [Lettau, M., Ludvigson, S, 2001. Consumption, aggregate wealth and expected stock returns. Journal of Finance 56, 815–849] argue that fluctuations from the equilibrium ratio of consumption to wealth (cây) reflect changing expectations of asset returns and document significant short-horizon predictability based on cây. This paper further explores the role of consumer expectations in modeling time variation of expected equity returns by considering two measures of consumer expectations: (i) consumer behavior as reflected in cây, and (ii) a more-direct measure of expectations captured by the Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS). We report strong regression-based evidence of return predictability based on cây, which remains evident even after accounting for various sources of estimation risk. However, the regression-based evidence of predictability does not necessarily imply that shifts in aggregate consumption and the components of aggregate wealth give rise to economically significant investment signals. The survey-based measure of expectations (ICS) is shown to complement the behavioral measure (cây) but has no apparent stand-alone predictive value in forecasting equity returns. 
 

10.   Yield-factor volatility models
Pages 3125-3144
Christophe Pérignon and Daniel R. Smith

 The term structure of interest rates is often summarized using a handful of yield factors that capture shifts in the shape of the yield curve. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive model for volatility dynamics in the level, slope, and curvature of the yield curve that simultaneously includes level and GARCH effects along with regime shifts. We show that the level of the short rate is useful in modeling the volatility of the three yield factors and that there are significant GARCH effects present even after including a level effect. Further, we find that allowing for regime shifts in the factor volatilities dramatically improves the model’s fit and strengthens the level effect. We also show that a regime-switching model with level and GARCH effects provides the best out-of-sample forecasting performance of yield volatility. We argue that the auxiliary models often used to estimate term structure models with simulation-based estimation techniques should be consistent with the main features of the yield curve that are identified by our model. 

 11.   Are current syndicated loan alliances related to past alliances?
Pages 3145-3161
Claudia Champagne and Lawrence Kryzanowski

 The odds of a current syndicate relationship between two lenders depend upon their previous alliances. The odds are significantly higher [lower] and strongest for a current lead–participant relationship with a continuation [reversal] of their previous roles. To illustrate, the odds are nearly four times higher when two lenders have allied in the previous 5 years. The strength of lead–participant syndicate relationships between two lenders with same-ordered roles is most sensitive to the lead bank’s reputation and informationally opaque participants tend to have stronger relationships with lead banks. Lenders exhibit home bias in their syndicate alliances since ongoing relationships are stronger with domestic counterparts. 

 12.   Does sovereign debt ratings news spill over to international stock markets?
Pages 3162-3182
Miguel A. Ferreira and Paulo M. Gama

 The evidence here indicates that sovereign debt rating and credit outlook changes of one country have an asymmetric and economically significant effect on the stock market returns of other countries over 1989–2003. There is a negative reaction of 51 basis points (two-day return spread vis-á-vis the US) to a credit ratings downgrade of one notch in a common information spillover around the world. Upgrades, however, have no significant impact on return spreads of countries abroad. Closeness (e.g., geographic proximity) and emerging market status amplify the effect of a spillover. Downgrade spillover effects at the industry level are more pronounced in traded goods and small industries. 
 

13. Implied volatility and future portfolio returns
Pages 3183-3199
Prithviraj S. Banerjee, James S. Doran and David R. Peterson

 Prior studies find that the CBOE volatility index (VIX) predicts returns on stock market indices, suggesting implied volatilities measured by VIX are a risk factor affecting security returns or an indicator of market inefficiency. We extend prior work in three important ways. First, we investigate the relationship between future returns and current implied volatility levels and innovations. Second, we examine portfolios sorted on book-to-market equity, size, and beta. Third, we control for the four Fama and French [Fama, E., French, K., 1993. Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics 33, 3–56.] and Carhart [Carhart, M., 1997. On persistence in mutual fund performance. Journal of Finance, 52, 57–82.] factors. We find that VIX-related variables have strong predictive ability. 
 

14. Accounting for distress in bank mergers
Pages 3200-3217
M. Koetter, J.W.B. Bos, F. Heid, J.W. Kolari, C.J.M. Kool and D. Porath

 Most bank merger studies do not control for hidden bailouts, which may lead to biased results. In this study we employ a unique data set of approximately 1000 mergers to analyze the determinants of bank mergers. We use undisclosed information on banks’ regulatory intervention history to distinguish between distressed and non-distressed mergers. Among merging banks, we find that improving financial profiles lower the likelihood of distressed mergers more than the likelihood of non-distressed mergers. The likelihood to acquire a bank is also reduced but less than the probability to be acquired. Both distressed and non-distressed mergers have worse CAMEL profiles than non-merging banks. Hence, non-distressed mergers may be motivated by the desire to forestall serious future financial distress and prevent regulatory intervention. 
 

15.  Regulatory harmonization and the development of private equity markets
Pages 3218-3250
Douglas Cumming and Sofia Johan
 
 This paper introduces a new dataset from 100 Dutch institutional investors’ domestic and international asset private equity allocations. The data indicate that the perceived comparative dearth of regulations of private equity funds impedes institutional investor participation in private equity funds, particularly in relation to the lack of transparency. The data further indicate that the perceived importance of regulatory harmonization of institutional investors has increased Dutch institutional investor allocations to domestic and international private equity funds. The Financieel Toetsingskader (regulation of portfolio management standards such as matching of assets and liabilities) has had the most pronounced and robust effect, followed by Basel II (regulation of risk management and disclosure standards) and the International Financial Reporting Standards (regulation of reporting standards and transparency).

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