Exports: The Icing on the Cake Gets Thinner

PDF 8页

Exports: The Icing on the Cake Gets Thinner
Arthur Kroeber
Director
Dragonomics Research &
Advisory

We are pleased to provide the following report by Hands-On China expert speaker,
Arthur Kroeber, Director, Dragonomics Research & Advisory, originally published in
Dragonomics’ China Insight No. 47.
For much of the past year Dragonomics has reassured readers that China need not fear
a slowdown or recession in the US economy. Now American recession fears are growing,
and Chinese exports to the US are slowing sharply. Are we worried? Not really. Net
exports, it is always worth remembering, are the icing on the Chinese economic cake.
Depending on external demand, the layer of icing may be thicker or thinner. But the
cake itself – whose size is determined by domestic investment – doesn’t change much
when some of the icing is scraped off. We expect the trade contribution to growth to
fall by half in 2008. But this will reduce GDP growth by just a point, to 10.5%. Knock-on
effects on investment could reduce growth further, to around 10%. But this is hardly
cause for panic.

[此贴子已经被wesker1999于2007-12-24 16:57:47编辑过]