经济温和复苏，对大宗商品需求平稳，大宗商品价格不会出现反弹（报告共27页）。

Macro View: Stability Sets In

As spring sets in, recent evidence of a gradual normalization in US economic momentum has offered some relief after a volatile winter. Although not all data are positive, we expect recent momentum to persist. Similarly, overall signals from the euro zone seem consistent with a stable growth outlook, though relatively weak new orders raise an element of caution.



Meanwhile, in China the government's apparent intention to put a floor under, but not pump up, activity reaffirms our view that, although near-term growth momentum has troughed, any seasonal bounce is likely to be a mild one.

China-sensitive industrial commodities – notably copper and iron ore – are therefore likely to trade in their ranges for a little longer before the lack of a more substantial demand pick-up dovetails with strong supply growth to put prices under downward pressure once again by Q3.

CS-commodity advantage.pdf
大小:(1.05 MB)

只需: 4 个论坛币  马上下载

我发过的其他帖子：

懂的入！欧元区的问题没有ECB想的那么简单！

IMF 世界经济展望 - 2014.1

IMF 世界经济展望 - 2014.4

IMF: 新常态下的货币政策 (Monetary Policy in the New Normal)
IMF 欧元区：通货紧缩or低通胀？
IMF: 财政监测报告（英文版100页） 2014Q1
IMF: 全球金融稳定报告（英文版184页） 2014Q1

瑞信 全球股票策略：动量反转（reversal in momentum）预示着什么？
瑞信 Commodity Advantage: Spring Stability, No Bounce

瑞信: 页岩革命（The Shale Revolution I & II，英文版，共343页 免费）

瑞信 全球经济季刊 2014.3 - Speeding up to Average

Credit Suisse (瑞信) 中国宏观策略 - 2014.3

BIS 亚太地区的贸易与通胀全球化
BIS 新兴市场国家的外汇干预和银行资产负债表