[2008.03.15]Sweet and sour pork又爱又恨的猪肉

Chinese inflation
中国的通货膨胀

Sweet and sour pork
又爱又恨的猪肉
Mar 13th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Are rising prices in China driven by the supply of meat or money?
推动中国物价飞涨的，是肉还是钱？

IN A country where bouts of inflation have triggered social unrest, the jump in China's inflation rate to a 12-year high of 8.7% in February is cause for concern. But economists are sharply divided on the cause of this inflation and the degree to which policy needs to be tightened.
在一个通货膨胀引起社会动荡的国家里，二月份物价指数飞涨到十二年来最高的8.7%,这无疑是人们关注的原因之一。但是，经济学家在分析引起通货膨胀的原因方面存在严重分歧，在需要从哪项政策入手方面也难达一致意见。

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected soon to lift interest rates and banks' reserve requirements once again. Some people fear a repeat of 1987-88 or 1993-94 when high inflation forced the government to tighten monetary policy sharply, causing a hard economic landing.
中国人民银行希望尽快再次提高存款利率和银行准备金。一些人害怕会重重蹈1987-1988或1993-1994年的复辙，因为在那时高通货膨胀率迫使政府实施从紧的货币政策，从而导致了经济的硬着陆。

One difference between today and previous surges in inflation is that the increase over the past year has been caused mainly by food prices, which jumped by 23%. Vegetable prices are 46% higher than a year ago, pork is 63% dearer. The impact of various supply shocks, notably blue-ear disease which killed thousands of pigs, were aggravated last month by the worst snowstorms for 50 years, damaging crops and disrupting transport. Non-food prices rose by only 1.6% over the past year. In 1994, by contrast, non-food inflation hit 20%.
今天通货膨胀不同以往，表现之一是就是造成这次上涨的原因主要是食品价格比去年上涨了23%。蔬菜价格比一年前高了46%，而猪肉竟然高了63%。多方面的供应紧缺，再加上个月50年来最严重雪灾造成粮食的减产、交通的中断都激化了这一矛盾。如果不考虑食品价格上涨因素，物价指数比去年只上涨了1.6%,相比1994年而言,排除食品因素的上涨率达到了20%。

To the extent that food prices have been pushed up by one-off supply factors, they should flatten later this year, causing inflation to fall. If so, it is argued, there is no need to slam on the brakes. Moreover, higher interest rates would do little to curb food prices. Some policy makers also worry that if China raised interest rates sharply at the same time as America is cutting them, this would attract bigger capital inflows and the extra liquidity could actually worsen inflationary pressures.
从某个角度而言，食品价格是因为供应环节脱节而推高，而这个因素在今年应该能够得到缓解，因此也可以使通货膨胀降下来。如果是这样的话，有人就主张，没有必要踩刹车。而且，高利率也无益于扼制食品价格的上涨。一些政策制定者也担心，如果中国在美国降息的时刻却大大提高利率，这将吸引更多的外资流入，过剩的流动性会给通货膨胀实际的压力。

Indeed, some economists believe that excess money is already partly to blame for rising inflation. In the past there has been a tight correlation between China's inflation and money-supply growth. Monetary growth surged before both bouts of inflation in 1987-88 and 1993-94. In 1993 the annual rate of growth of the M2 measure of money hit 40%.
事实上，许多经济学家已经认为，这次通货膨胀部分归责于过量的货币。在过去，中国通货膨胀和货币供应的增长之间有紧密的联系。在1987-1988和1993-1994的两次通货膨胀的发生，都是由于之前的的货币供应量过度而引起。在1993年，货币供应量的增长率达到了40%。

Today it is less clear that the money supply is out of control. Over the past year M2 rose by 17.5%, not much faster than the average during 1998-2003 when prices were flat or falling. But Hong Liang, an economist at Goldman Sachs, reckons that the M2 measure of money understates the amount of liquidity sloshing around in China. She prefers M3, a broader measure, which includes deposits in non-bank financial institutions and securities issued by financial institutions. According to her calculations, M3 growth has risen sharply since 2005, from around 15% to 23%. This suggests that higher inflation could prove to be more persistent and spread from food to other goods and services, requiring the PBOC to tighten by much more.
现在，货币供应是否失控还不是很明朗。在去年，M2的增长率是17.5%,江来比1998-2003年期间的平均增水平快多少。但是，一个在Goldman Sachs的经济学家梁洪认为，M2的货币措施低估了中国的货币流通量。她提出M3的方案，一个更大措施，包括非银行金融机构在内的储蓄政策和金融机构的安全提案。根据她的测算，M3从2005年以来从15%提高到了23%。这意味着更高的通货膨胀将继续，并且从食品领域漫延到其它商品及服务领域。需要中国人民银行用更紧的货币政策予以应对。

But another difference between today and previous bouts of inflation is that in the past rising inflation went hand-in-hand with a widening current-account deficit—a classic symptom of overheating. Today China has a huge surplus. This offers another tool to fight inflation: a more rapid appreciation in the yuan alongside a modest interest-rate rise could curb imported inflation and cause less harm to domestic demand. Indeed, this is something that most economists can agree on: regardless of what is driving inflation up, a stronger yuan would help to pull it down.
然则，这个通货膨胀和以前的另一个不同之处在于，从前的通货膨胀是巨大的财政赤字引起的连锁反应----这是典型的经济过热。而今天，中国也有巨大的商品过剩。这为抑制通货膨胀提供了另一个手段：尽快地对人民币的重新估值，通过汇率的提高来抑制进口的上升，减少对国内商品的侵害。实际上，这是多数经济学家能够达成一致意见：无论通货膨胀因何引起，强势人民币将有助于抑制它。