NPV is not the best way employed to do thus job, but professionals are likely to use it nowadays.
In a business world, you will never get absolutely assured evaluation.
What we can do is to approach it as close as we can.
Normally speaking, the underwriter will build the model and conduct the evaluation for you.
One friend (a insider) told me that they normally even didn't show their clients the model.
"just tell them your number?!" I asked,
"That's right. Just tell them your contusion" he answered.
Before building such evaluation models,
the professional will communicate with you (their client) with due care.
They try their best to embed the ongoing information into their models.
The capital structure,
the sales strategy,
the equipment retirement,
the inventory turnover, etc.
However, don't assume that they (the professionals) will conduct a rocket science research.
They have far more jobs waiting them.
What they are going to do, is to get a "number" as soon as they can.
Then sell it to you.
As what I mentioned before,
they normally adopt simpler method to get the initial number within half an hour.
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You are right, the discount rate is the key.
There is systematic way to get one.
Normally you will consider the weighted capital cost involving debt and equity.
For the purpose of IPO,
the discount rate is also considered for the coming years after IPO.
In summary,
有无考虑ipo融资之后,现金增多而投资性支出、经营利润的变化?
Yes, the modeler already considers the upper information in advance.
相对应的折现率和股本数量应该以IPO之后的,还是IPO之前的股本为基础进行计算。
The modeler get his number based on integrated information, especially after IPO.
The splendid future is a selling point for potential investors, why not?
Your another question,
会因为增发投资、经营利润变多,然后自由现金流肯定也会很大
My friend, you cannot reach this conclusion simply because you increase your investment.
That's why pre-communication is so important.
Your business model must sound persuasive, at least reasonable.
It is a professional requirement.
In the really world scenario, the forecasting won't beyond five years.
The practitioner try to keep the model simple.
Cash flow data comes mainly from your operations, not somewhere else.
I am a student too.
I hope it helps.
Good luck my friend. :)
cpamodeler 发表于 2014-7-1 00:19
Hi buddy,
how are you?
hey friends, i just help the professor do an excel formwork for valuation. i want to understand the principle . in fact, when i want to assess the corporate, i dont use this model.