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2014-06-30
本人一直对企业价值评估的理论有这样的疑问,求高人指点:
   当一个公司在持续经营时,对其进行价值评估,可以根据自由现金流折现的方法对其进行估值。
但是,对ipo的公司,是否还是以自由现金流折现的方式进行计算,这样有无考虑ipo融资之后,现金增多而投资性支出、经营利润的变化,此外,相对应的折现率和股本数量应该以IPO之后的,还是IPO之前的股本为基础进行计算。


还有一个问题:当自由现金流进行折现的时候,如果未来进行股权再融资,如公开增发,极端一点说,原来只有1000万股,但是定向增发1亿股的情况下,预测未来自由现金流的时候,会因为增发投资、经营利润变多,然后自由现金流肯定也会很大,此时折现之后,除以股本,是现在时点的股本吗?如果是现在的股本,那新增的股本(股东)拥有未来现金流的索取权,此时计算每股价值是否合适。
若不是现在试点的股本,又该如何考虑。

跪求 高人解释。
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2014-7-1 00:19:02
Hi buddy,
how are you?

NPV is not the best way employed to do thus job, but professionals are likely to use it nowadays.
In a business world, you will never get absolutely assured evaluation.
What we can do is to approach it as close as we can.

Normally speaking, the underwriter will build the model and conduct the evaluation for you.
One friend (a insider) told me that they normally even didn't show their clients the model.

"just tell them your number?!" I asked,
"That's right. Just tell them your contusion"  he answered.

Before building such evaluation models,
the professional will communicate with you (their client) with due care.
They try their best to embed the ongoing information into their models.
The capital structure,
the sales strategy,
the equipment retirement,
the inventory turnover, etc.

However, don't assume that they (the professionals) will conduct a rocket science research.
They have far more jobs waiting them.
What they are going to do, is to get a "number" as soon as they can.
Then sell it to you.

As what I mentioned before,
they normally adopt simpler method to get the initial number within half an hour.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You are right, the discount rate is the key.
There is systematic way to get one.
Normally you will consider the weighted capital cost involving debt and equity.
For the purpose of IPO,
the discount rate is also considered for the coming years after IPO.

In summary,
有无考虑ipo融资之后,现金增多而投资性支出、经营利润的变化?
Yes, the modeler already considers the upper information in advance.

相对应的折现率和股本数量应该以IPO之后的,还是IPO之前的股本为基础进行计算。
The modeler get his number based on integrated information, especially after IPO.
The splendid future is a selling point for potential investors, why not?


Your another question,
会因为增发投资、经营利润变多,然后自由现金流肯定也会很大
My friend, you cannot reach this conclusion simply because you increase your investment.

That's why pre-communication is so important.
Your business model must sound persuasive, at least reasonable.
It is a professional requirement.

In the really world scenario, the forecasting won't beyond five years.
The practitioner try to keep the model simple.
Cash flow data comes mainly from your operations, not somewhere else.


I am a student too.
I hope it helps.
Good luck my friend. :)
  
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2014-7-1 09:40:16
cpamodeler 发表于 2014-7-1 00:19
Hi buddy,
how are you?
关于最后一个问题,我想了解的是,如果预测:价值评估时点两年后公司将会公开增发,那么两年后的现金流的归属权一部分属于新股东,那么我们采用全部现金流折现到评估时点的,并除以现在的股本对不对?
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2014-7-1 09:45:37
cpamodeler 发表于 2014-7-1 00:19
Hi buddy,
how are you?
hey friends, i just help the professor do an excel formwork for valuation. i want to understand the  principle . in fact, when i want to assess the corporate, i dont use this model.
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