国际货币基金组织（IMF）：是资本流入还是资本流出占主导？——中国资本账户自由化的全球影响

  Contents  Page

I. Introduction ............................................................................................................................3
II. Background: Restrictions in China .......................................................................................4
III. Stylized Facts: Capital Account Liberalization Episodes since the 1970s  ..........................6
IV. Estimating the possible impact of capital account liberalization  .........................................9
V. Implications for China and Conclusions  .............................................................................14

Boxes
1. Country Examples of Capital Account Liberalization  .........................................................18
2. U.K. Removal of Exchange Controls in 1979–80 ...............................................................19
3. Japan. Removal of Exchange Controls in 197980  ...............................................................20

Figures
1. Change in Net Financial Flows and Business Cycle at Time of Liberalization ....................8

Tables
1. Capital Account Restrictions in China  .................................................................................21
2. Capital Account Restrictions ...............................................................................................23
3. FGLS Regression: Share of Bilateral Portfolio assets in Total Portfolio, 2005–10 ............24
4. FGLS Regression: Share of Bilateral Portfolio Assets in Total Portfolio, 2005–10  ...........25
5. Panel Regression: Share of Bilateral Portfolio assets in Total Portfolio, 2005–10  .............26
6. FGLS Regression: Share of Bilateral Portfolio Assets in Total Portfolio, 2005–10  ...........27
7. Impact of Hypothetical Capital Account Liberalization in China  .......................................28

References  ................................................................................................................................29