crystal8832 发表于 2022-8-9 20:21 
协整最早提出的时候是在1981年,只是没有系统性的阐述(系统性阐述应该是1987)。ECM的两步法应该是在198 ...
Sargan(1964)第一次提出误差修正模型的概念。Hendry和Anderson(1977)、Davidson等(1978)对误差修正模型进行进一步完善。可参考:
Davidson J E H, Hendry D F, Srba F, Yeo S. Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship Between Consumers’ Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom[J]. The Economic Journal, 1978, 88(352): 661-692.
Hendry D F, Anderson G J. Testing Dynamic Specification in Small Simultaneous Systems: An Application to a Model of Building Society Behavior in the United Kingdom, in: M. D. Intriligator, ed., Frontiers in Quantitative Economics, Vol. IIIA (North-Holland, Amsterdam), 1977.
Sargan J D. Wages and Prices in the United Kingdom: A Study in Econometric Methodology[J]. Econometric Analysis for National Economic Planning, 1964, 16: 25-54.