Imagine that you have a theory that, in the long run, drawing pins landpin-up 2/3 of the time when tossed high in the air (and pin-down the other 1/3of the time).  The competing theory isthat the pins always land pin-up.

If you decide to toss the drawing pin twice and your theory is correct,what is the chance that the competing theory will be disproved? (Think aboutwhich outcomes would disprove the competing theory and how likely they are ifyour theory is correct)