China’s factory sector shrank last month for the first time in more than two years, in the latest sign that the country’s growth slowdown is set to continue after the economy’s weakest expansion in 24 years last year.

中国制造业上月出现两年多来首次收缩，这是继去年中国经济扩张速度降至24年最低位之后，中国经济增长放缓的最新迹象。

The latest reading on the manufacturing sector will strengthen calls for more aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus to boost the economy. Analysts expect the central bank to cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio twice this year and the finance ministry to permit a larger fiscal deficit.

最新的制造业指数将加强出台更积极的货币和财政政策以提振经济的呼声。分析人士预计，中国央行今年将两次下调银行存款准备金率，财政部也将允许更大的财政赤字。

The government’s official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 49.8 in January, data released yesterday showed. That was down from 50.1

昨日政府发布的数据显示，1月官方采购经理人指数(PMI)下降到49.8，去年12月为50.1。自2012年9月以来，该指数首次跌破50这一经济扩张和收缩的分界点。

in December and the first time since  September 2012 that the gauge fell below the 50-point level separating expansion from contraction.

澳新银行(ANZ)大中华区首席经济师刘利刚昨天在一份简报中写道：“随着李克强总理近日重申中国仍需较快增长才能在今年新增1000万就业机会，再加上（鉴于）中国正进入一个快速的通胀减速过程，我们认为货币政策姿态将保持宽松偏向。”

“As Premier Li Keqiang reiterated recently that China still needs decent growth to add 100m new jobs this year, plus [given] that China is entering a rapid disinflation process, we think that the easing bias in the monetary policy stance remains,” Liu Li-Gang, chief Greater China economist at ANZ, wrote in a note yesterday.

除PMI指数疲软之外，上星期公布的12月工业（包括制造业、采矿和公用事业）利润也出现有记录以来最大下降。

The weak PMI follows data out last week showing profits in the industrial sector, which includes manufacturing as well as mining and utilities, dropped by the most on record in December.

根据路透社(Reuters)的一份调查显示，分析师此前预期PMI指数为50.2。原本预计PMI指数会受到季节性影响而提升，但结果却欠佳。工厂在春节（今年落在2月）前增加产出。然而产出分类指数仍然从12月的52.2跌落到1月的51.7。

Analysts had expected a PMI reading of 50.2, according to a Reuters poll. The poor reading came in spite of seasonal effects that were expected to boost the result. Factories ramp up output just before the lunar new year holiday, which falls in February this year. Yet the production sub-index dropped to 51.7 in January from 52.2 in December.

进口下降1.4个百分点，至46.4，反映国内需求走弱。由于能源和大宗商品价格持续下滑，主要原材料购进价格指数下降1.3个百分点，至41.9。

Imports fell by 1.4 percentage points to 46.4, reflecting weakening domestic demand. Input prices dropped 1.3 percentage points to 41.9 as energy and commodity prices continued to slide.

汇丰银行(HSBC)进行的另一项PMI调查偏重于规模较小的民营企业，1月份该指数略有加强。1月其中国制造业PMI“终值”为49.7——略带低于两周前的“预览值”49.8，但略高于去年12月的49.6。汇丰中国制造业PMI连续下降之前，曾连续6个月上升。

A separate PMI survey from HSBC, which is weighted towards smaller, privately owned factories, strengthened modestly in January, producing a preliminary or “flash” reading of 49.8 compared with 49.6 in December.

汇丰首席经济学家屈宏斌表示，我们认为，制造业需求仍然疲弱，未来将需要采取更激进的货币和财政宽松政策，以防止增长进一步大幅下滑。

A slowdown in real estate investment amid a fall in housing prices has damped demand for China’s factory output.

在房价下跌的大背景下，房地产投资的放缓抑制了对中国工厂产出的需求。

Sales volumes have picked up in recent months, but many cities have overhangs of unsold flats that will take months or years to clear. That implies that demand for basic manufactured items such as steel, cement and copper wire will remain soft as developers slow construction of new projects.

最近几个月楼市的销量出现起色，然而许多城市还有大量未出售公寓需要几个月甚至几年时间才能消化。这种局面意味着，随着开发商减缓了新项目的施工，对钢铁、水泥和铜线等基本制成品的需求将保持疲软。

Mr Li has said China must adapt to

李克强曾表示，中国必须适应增长较为缓慢的“新常态”，摆脱依赖建筑业和重工业的增长模式。

a “new normal” of slower growth and move away from reliance on construction and heavy industry.

译者/何黎