The sector’s 2009e PE of 9.3x is close to
its 10-year low. Its yield relative to long
bonds is near to its 10-year high
􀀗 We upgrade our assumptions for Brent
but downgrade refining margins in
Europe and the US
􀀗 Our preferred stocks are ENI and Total
(OW); downgrade Repsol to Neutral
(OW), upgrade OMV to Neutral (UW)
Sector valuations
On consensus forecasts, the European oil sector’s PE is
currently 9.3x (2009e), close to a 10-year low. Its yield
relative to long bonds and the market also looks attractive.
Changes to macro assumptions
We revise our assumptions for 2008-10e Brent prices to
USD80, USD75 and USD60 from USD63, USD55 and
USD55 respectively as we believe the market will remain
tighter for longer than we previously expected. However, we
downgrade our forecasts for refining margins in the US and
Europe. Asian margins should remain strong however.
Rating changes
We downgrade Repsol to Neutral (OW) and upgrade OMV
to Neutral (UW).

目录

Summary 3
Valuations 3
Updating the price deck 4
Changes to ratings 4
Oil sector strategy 6
Valuations 6
Macro view 8
Updating the price deck 8
Forecasts 14
Ratings and valuations 15
Changes 15
Valuation 15
Cost of capital 16
BG Group 17
BP 19
ENI 21
OMV 23
Repsol YPF 25
Royal Dutch 27
Statoil 29
Total 31
Disclosure appendix 33
Disclaimer 36
Contents