Prescription Pad - January
A Monthly Analysis of U.S. Promotion and
Prescriptions
European Pharmaceuticals
Alexandra HauberAC
(44-20) 7742-6655 / (1-312) 325-3694
alexandra.m.hauber@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
Richard Vosser
(44-20) 7742-6652
richard.vosser@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
Alistair Campbell
(44-20) 7742-6653
alistair.d.campbell@jpmchase.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
James D Gordon
(44-20) 7742-6654
james.d.gordon@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
US Pharmaceuticals
Chris Schott, CFA
(1-212) 622-5676
christopher.t.schott@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
US Biotechnology
Geoffrey Meacham, Ph.D.
(1-212) 622-6531
geoffrey.c.meacham@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
Medical Technology
Michael Weinstein
(1-212) 622-6635
mike.weinstein@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
See page 125 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
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Where will 2009 Pharma growth lie?
Many 2008 Pharma growth forecasts proved overly optimistic
• 2008 looks sets to see global pharma sales growth reported at only 4%,
down from 6% in 2007, with the US the major driver of this deceleration.
• US - undershot expectations Forecasters expected a US 2008 growth rate
of 4-5%, the reality looks set to be the lowest US sales growth for 20 years,
at only around 1.5%. In our view this weak US performance was the
product of flat prescription volumes (see page 2), unmasked by the lack of a
Part D or Flu season benefit, combined with a declining price benefit and
increasing genericisation; the weakening US economy then also contributed
further to the slowdown.
• Top 5 EU - small deceleration: Growth has also slowed in 2008 as
volumes have declined and new launches slowed, with growth declining
from 5% in 2007, down to 4% in 2008.
• Emerging market growth at 14%, remained buoyant in 2008, as GDP
growth (at least in H1 '08) combined with population growth to provide
increased funds for healthcare spend.
• Japan affected by price cuts: Growth decelerated to 2% in 2008, from 4%
in 2007 as a result of the biennial price cuts Japan enforces.

2009 growth to be even lower, with the US remaining the weakest link
• US - Risk of negative Volume Growth? For 2009 we expect flat volume growth, with little pricing or mix benefit
coming from new launches to offset further genericisations. Price rises put through in H2 ’08 may continue to
provide a benefit into the first half of 2009, but rebating may negate some of this benefit and further price rises look
increasingly difficult to achieve. With unemployment rising, we see some risks of US volume growth potentially
turning negative in 2009.
• EU - Robust for Now. Relative to the US we continue to expect more robust growth from the EU in 2009. On the
downside we see potential for individual countries to introduce emergency cost cutting measures in response to
budget deficits later in the year.
• Emerging markets - How sustainable is the Growth Story? Based on conversation with Pharma companies at
the J.P. Morgan Healthcare conference it appears that emerging markets are set to continue to grow strongly in
2009, despite the economic downturn. However we do see some risk to this assumption.

Table of Contents
Explanation/Interpretation of Terminology .................................................................5
Terminology.................................................................................................................5
Other J.P. Morgan Prescription Data Publications.......................................................5
Investment Recommendations and Company Highlights ....6
Actelion (ATLN – Neutral) .........................................................................................7
AstraZeneca (AZN – Neutral)......................................................................................7
Bayer (BAYG – Overweight) ......................................................................................8
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK – Underweight) .....................................................................9
Merck KGaA (MRCG.De – Overweight)..................................................................10
Novartis (NVS – Neutral) ..........................................................................................10
Novo Nordisk (NVO – Neutral).................................................................................11
Roche (ROG – Overweight) ......................................................................................11
Sanofi-Aventis (SNY – Underweight).......................................................................12
Shire (SHP – Overweight) .........................................................................................12
UCB (UCB – Neutral) ...............................................................................................13
U.S. Pharmaceuticals–Chris Schott, CFA, (1-212) 622-5676....................................14
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY – Neutral)....................................................14
Eli Lilly & Co (LLY – Underweight) ........................................................................14
Merck & Co. (MRK – Overweight)...........................................................................15
Pfizer (PFE – Neutral) ...............................................................................................16
Schering-Plough (SGP – Overweight).......................................................................17
Wyeth (WYE – Neutral) ............................................................................................18
U.S. Biotechnology–Geoff Meacham, Ph.D. (1-212) 622-6531................................19
Amgen (AMGN – Neutral)........................................................................................19
Biogen Idec (BIIB – Neutral).....................................................................................20
Genentech (DNA – Overweight) ...............................................................................21
Genzyme (GENZ – Neutral)......................................................................................21
Gilead Sciences (GILD – Overweight) ......................................................................22
U.S. Medical Technology– Michael Weinstein, (1-212) 622-6635 ...........................23
Abbott Labs (ABT – Overweight) .............................................................................23
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ – Neutral)...........................................................................24
Total Market Summary – Prescription Trends .....................25
Total Market Summary – Promotion Detailing .....................28
Total Market Summary – Direct-to-Consumer (DTC)
Advertising..............................................................................29
Therapeutic Category Highlights ..........................................31
Allergy .......................................................................................................................31
Antihistamines ...........................................................................................................31
Intranasal Steroids......................................................................................................34
Alzheimer’s Disease ..................................................................................................36
Antibiotics..................................................................................................................38
Anti-Cancer Agents ...................................................................................................42
Antidepressants..........................................................................................................46

Antifungals, Oral (Leading Products)........................................................................49
Antifungals, Hospital-Based ......................................................................................50
Anti-Obesity...............................................................................................................51
Anti-Platelet (Injectable)............................................................................................52
Antipsychotics ...........................................................................................................53
Anti-Ulcerants............................................................................................................55
Arthritis/COX-2s .......................................................................................................58
Asthma.......................................................................................................................61
Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) ...................................................70
Cholesterol.................................................................................................................72
Colony-Stimulating Factors (Neutropenia)................................................................74
Congestive Heart Failure ...........................................................................................75
Diabetes .....................................................................................................................77
Epilepsy .....................................................................................................................81
Erectile Dysfunction ..................................................................................................82
Erythropoietins...........................................................................................................84
Flu Medication...........................................................................................................85
Glaucoma...................................................................................................................87
Hepatitis-C.................................................................................................................89
Herpes ........................................................................................................................91
Hormone Replacement Therapy/Estrogen Replacement Therapy (HRT/ERT).........92
HIV/AIDS – Protease Inhibitors................................................................................94
HIV/AIDS – Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors (RTI) ................................................95
Hypertension..............................................................................................................96
Hypertension – Angiotensin II Blockers....................................................................98
Hypertension – ACE Inhibitors................................................................................100
Hypertension – Calcium Channel Blockers .............................................................102
Insomnia ..................................................................................................................104
Migraine...................................................................................................................106
Multiple Sclerosis ....................................................................................................109
Organ Transplant/Immunosuppressants...................................................................110
Osteoporosis.............................................................................................................111
Pain (Moderate to Severe) .......................................................................................113
Renal Disease, End Stage – Adjunctive Treatments ................................................114
Rheumatoid Arthritis ...............................................................................................115
Severe Sepsis ...........................................................................................................117
Synthetic Thyroid Hormones (Levothyroxines) ......................................................118
Urinary Incontinence ...............................................................................................119
J.P. Morgan Global Healthcare Research...........................128
Pharmaceutical Products Teams ..............................................................................128
The authors gratefully acknowledge the contribution of Rahul Gupta of J.P. Morgan
Services India Pvt. Ltd., Mumbai, to this report.

[此贴子已经被作者于2009-1-28 0:48:20编辑过]