1 论文标题：经济腾飞与产业转型的动态过程

2 作者信息：

张铭仁，国立东华大学；

王平，华盛顿大学圣路易斯分校

&

美国国民经济研究局；

谢丹阳，武汉大学

&

香港科技大学

3 出处：Ming-Jen Chang,Ping Wang,Danyang Xie. The Dynamic Process of Economic Takeoff and Industrial Transformation[J]. Front. Econ. China, 2016, 11(1): 60-87.
全文链接: http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/10.3868/s060-005-016-0005-3    OR     http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/Y2016/V11/I1/60

4 摘要：本文研究了经济分段发展的模式和关键决定因素。我们构建了两部门动态一般均衡模型，植入非交叠一期代际经济个体，刻画现代技术的内生性提高以及劳动技能和资本金的内生性累积。我们考察了对传统必需品行业的偏好倾向、现代行业的资本壁垒以及熟练和非熟练工人之间的不完全替代情况。通过校准模型对照美国的历史发展过程，我们发现现代技术、储蓄动机和资金规模/壁垒是决定经济腾飞时间的最重要因素。通过评估经济发展过程，我们断定在经济腾飞以后储蓄源于哪些动机对于实现现代化的速度至关重要。我们进一步确定，在动态转型过程中，劳动、资本和产出对于现代技术的初始发展响应度最高，但对技能禀赋响应度最低。

【FEC Articles Express】

The Dynamic Process of Economic Takeoff and IndustrialTransformation

Ming-Jen Chang, National Dong Hwa University

Ping Wang, Washington University in St. Louis and NBER

Danyang Xie, Wuhan University; Hong Kong University ofScience and Technology

Abstract: This paper studies the patterns and key determinantsof staged economic development. We construct a two-sector dynamic generalequilibrium model populated with one-period lived non-overlapping generations,featuring endogenous enhancement in modern technology and endogenous accumulationof labor skills and capital funds. We consider preference biases toward thetraditional sector of necessities, capital barriers to the modern sector, andimperfect substitution between skilled and unskilled workers. By calibratingthe model to fithistoric U.S. development, we find that modern technologies, saving incentives and capitalscales/barriers are the most important determinants of the takeoff time. Byevaluating the process of economic development, we identify that what shapessaving incentives is most crucial for the speed of modernization after taking off.We further establish that labor, capital and output are most responsive to theinitial state of modern technologies, but least responsive to skill endowments,along the dynamic transition path.

JEL Classification Numbers: O330, O410

Keywords: Economic takeoff and industrial transformation;endogenous skill and technological advancements; saving incentives, preferencebiases and capital barriers.

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