Citigroup 12月长篇报告,132页。
We expect rising regional(and global)nominal GDP and EPS growth to support decent c10-15% returns for European equities in 2017.Citi macro colleagues expect higher oil prices,rising inflation,higher bond yields and a stronger USD in 2017.We embed these tilts into our investment strategy and keep our preference for Commodity,Financial and Cyclical(CFC)sectors over Defensives despite the latter's sharp de-rating in 2H16.We expect continued EPS recovery and leadership from CFC sectors,which is already starting to show.We also continue to back de-equitisation and cyclical yield.Overall,we back QE+ and growth/reflation over Vox Populi risk and recession/deflation.But,we take political risk seriously given the forthcoming elections in the Netherlands,France and Germany,as well as post-Referendum developments in Italy and the UK.We therefore stick with our various political hedges,which combine supportive fundamentals and also protection against various political risks,e.g.fiscal hedge,Black Gold,outcome agnostic,USD FX kickers.Good luck in 2017.