Contents page
Summary and Investment Case 3
Industry analysis 8
— The weakening economy prompts policy action.....................................................8
Revisions to our earnings estimates 11
— We lower our price and volume assumptions.......................................................11
— We cut our 2009 revenue forecasts by an average 37% .....................................12
— We lower our 2009 earnings forecasts by an average 38%.................................13
— Our earnings estimates are below consensus .....................................................16
Valuations and stocks 17
— Migrating to the UBS VCAM model ......................................................................17
— VCAM assumptions..............................................................................................17
Policy analysis 23
Market analysis 25
— Risks to our view ..................................................................................................30
Appendix 31
— NAV, EPS and margin sensitivity to price cuts.....................................................31
Company pages 37
— Agile Property Holdings........................................................................................ 38
— Country Garden....................................................................................................46
— China Overseas Land & Investment.....................................................................55
— Greentown China Holdings...................................................................................65
— Hopson Development Holdings............................................................................73
— KWG Property Holding .........................................................................................81
— Guangzhou R&F Properties .................................................................................89
— Shimao Property Holdings....................................................................................97
— SOHO China.......................................................................................................105
— Shui On Land......................................................................................................113
— Shenzhen Investment Ltd...................................................................................121