楼主有此疑惑，关键还是没理解“什么叫理性预期理论”。

理想预期理论好像是在讲菲利普斯曲线的时候提到的，说是要是理想预期的话 降低通货膨胀的成本为零 2# 猫爪

2# 猫爪

前辈多指教！我的想法错在哪里~自己确实没理解

不管怎么说理性预期肯定存在缺陷

Firstly, you should understand that the concept of  rational expectaion is just a important assumption in economics, since it is just an assumption, it is obvious that it may contradicte with our normal life. You could not say that the models based on this assumption are wrong as they the logic behind the theory is consistent.

As for the datail of rational expectations, we could define the expectations as being identical to the optimal forcast that uses all available information.

There are many famous models applied the concept to set the models, such as the Lucas supply curve, while the concept was firstly denoted by Muth 1961, if you want to know the detail of it, you could read the papers, Lucas 1972 JET and Sargent, Thomas J. and Neil Wallace 1973 Econometrica
5# dieme