Table of Contents
Our key calls .............................................................................3
Attractive valuation......................................................................................................4
Back into the growth phase.....................................................5
Narrowing gap between listed and physical market yield............................................5
Potential acquisitions back in spot light.......................................................................6
A case study on CMT ..................................................................................................7
Credit cost on its way down....................................................9
Valuation .................................................................................12
Share price performance ............................................................................................12
What is priced in? ......................................................................................................12
Our valuation methodology – DDM ..........................................................................13
Dividend yield and yield spread.................................................................................16
Book valuation...........................................................................................................17
Key risks ....................................................................................................................18
Assessing S-REITs’ earnings profile ....................................20
Key assumptions behind our earnings estimates........................................................21
Potential earnings surprise/shocks .............................................................................22
Capital management ..............................................................23
S-REITs have substantially recapitalized...................................................................23
Debt expiry profile still not optimal...........................................................................24
Other sectoral issues .............................................................26
S-REITs M&A potential ............................................................................................26
Divestment and portfolio restructuring ......................................................................26
Regionalization ..........................................................................................................26
Appendices
Appendix I: Physical market outlook....................................28
Appendix II: S-REITs structure..............................................36
Appendix III: S-REITs fee schedule.......................................37
Companies
A-REIT (AEMN.SI – S$1.66) ...................................................................................40
Ascendas India Trust (AINT.SI – S$0.75).................................................................45
CapitaCommercial Trust (CACT.SI – S$0.87) ..........................................................50
CapitaMall Trust (CMLT.SI – S$1.50)......................................................................55
CapitaRetail China Trust (CRCT.SI – S$1.25)..........................................................60
CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDLT.SI – S$1.08) ............................................................65
Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCRT.SI – S$1.00) .........................................................70
Mapletree Logistics Trust (MAPL.SI – S$0.58)........................................................75
Suntec REIT (SUNT.SI – S$1.01) .............................................................................80