【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月美国证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：64
        【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
US Equity Strategy Recent Publications.................................................................................................. 2
Bullish into YE09 as Consensus Hibernates ..............................................5
…Raising 2009 YE Target to 1160 from 1100 ..............................................6
Raising 2010E EPS to $80 from Prior Street High of $76....................................................................... 6
S&P 500 Sector-Implied Valuation on Revised Earnings Estimates ....................................................... 9
Still Positive Potential Catalysts into YE............................................................................................... 10
Putting the $80 EPS Level in Perspective... ..............................................11
US GDP Should Re-Attain Peak 2007 GDP by Late 2010, but S&P 500 Profits Still 13% Off Peak... 11
S&P 500 Has Typically Re-Attained Peak Profits Within 12 months Post-Trough .............................. 12
Top Quartile of Stocks Already Back to Peak Earnings ........................................................................ 13
Reduced Loan Loss Provisions Add an Implied $9 to 2010E S&P 500 EPS ........................................ 14
Each 1% in GDP Growth Represents $4-$5 in Additional S&P 500 EPS............................................. 15
Trade Idea: 25 “Pro-Cyclical” Stocks ........................................................17
Update on Top Energy Stocks Trade Idea ............................................................................................. 21
Closing Trade – 25 High Debt Stocks ................................................................................................... 22
Sector Comparative.....................................................................................25
Which Industries Score the Best? Based on Target Prices and Buzz-o-Meter....................................... 26
S&P 500: Snapshot of Industry Market Capitalization.......................................................................... 27
Price Performance – S&P 500 ............................................................................................................... 28
Trailing 1-Month Relative Price Performance – Sectors ....................................................................... 29
Monthly Sales Revision – S&P 500....................................................................................................... 30
Monthly Sales Revision – Sectors ......................................................................................................... 31
Relative Sales Momentum – S&P 500................................................................................................... 32
Relative Sales Growth (vs. S&P 500) – Sectors (best if tail is rising) ................................................... 33
Monthly Earnings Revision – S&P 500................................................................................................. 34
Monthly Earnings Revision – Sectors.................................................................................................... 35
Relative Earnings Momentum – S&P 500............................................................................................. 36
Relative Earnings Momentum – Sectors (best if tail is rising)............................................................... 37
JULI Spreads – All Industries................................................................................................................ 38
JULI Spreads (Relative to All Industries’ Averages) – Sectors (best is high and narrowing) ............... 39
First Call Mean Rating – S&P 500 ........................................................................................................ 40
First Call Mean Rating (Relative to S&P 500) – Sectors (best is low and rising) ................................. 41
Short Interest – S&P 500 ....................................................................................................................... 42
Short Interest (Relative to S&P 500) – Sectors (best is high and falling).............................................. 43
ETF (SPDR) Fund Flows....................................................................................................................... 44
ETF (SPDR) Fund Flows – Sectors ....................................................................................................... 45
Price/10-Yr EPS – S&P 500 .................................................................................................................. 46
Price/10-Yr EPS (Relative to S&P 500) – Sectors (best if low and rising)............................................ 47
Sector Analysis: Industries and Stocks ....................................................48
Energy................................................................................................................................................... 49
Materials ............................................................................................................................................... 50
Industrials ............................................................................................................................................. 51
Technology ........................................................................................................................................... 52
Staples................................................................................................................................................... 53
Health Care ........................................................................................................................................... 54
Telecom ................................................................................................................................................ 55
Utilities ................................................................................................................................................. 56
Discretionary......................................................................................................................................... 57
Financials.............................................................................................................................................. 59
Buzz-o-Meter Methodology................................................................................................................... 60
Composite Score Methodology.............................................................................................................. 61