【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月美国证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：80
        【目录或简介】：
US Strategy
Recent rally supported by positive revisions. 25 ideas. — 3/18/10
Stay Tactical: Focus on Groups Leveraged to Positive Labor – 22 Ideas — 3/11/10
Raise '10E S&P 500 EPS to $81 (from $80): Driven by Higher Technology, Discretionary, &
Financials EPS. 25 Stock Ideas — 2/25/10
Cos have $428 in excess cash on balance sheets…harbinger of Capex, M&A, and buybacks. 16
ideas. — 2/18/10
Circle of Life: Tactical and Strategic Logic to Buy Energy, Materials & Technology — 2/11/10
Secular over Transitory: Free cash flow trumps “Washington” discount and China fears – 1/28/10
4Q09 Preview: Focus on top-line: Higher quality EPS seen, as 53% of S&P 500 are set to show
YoY revs growth – 1/21/10
Circle of Life: Focus on Financials. Taking off Energy trade. Still Pro-Cyclical. – 1/14/10
2010 shift from stabilization to growth; cues shift from credit to micro-eco – 1/7/10
Notes from investor meetings in Brazil: Sentiment turning relatively more positive… – 12/23/09
29 stock ideas to leverage the end of “October hibernation” – 12/17/09
Circle of Life: Raising YE09 Target to 1160: Raising ’10E EPS to $80; Pro-Cyclical – 11/20/09
Fund Managers trailing benchmarks more important to YE – 19 Ideas to leverage this – 11/05/09
Hang on…fundamentals still improving. 3Q top-line beat not just FX. Payrolls is next catalyst –
11/3/09
Surge in GDP per worker suggests positive payrolls by early 2010 – 10/29/09
Circle of Life: Rising Tobin’s Q and HY Prices Heavily Favor Higher-Debt Equities – 10/22/09
3Q09 Preview: The Bar Is Higher: Expect a 1% Top Line and 10% EPS Beat – 10/08/09
Investors wary of October. But 4 reasons we think month could be benign – 10/01/09
Heavy Issuance Behind Softness This Week? Seven Straight Monthly Gains a Charm? – 9/25/09
Circle of Life: 7 Reasons Cyclicals Still Justify “Fresh Money,” and 26 Stock Ideas – 9/18/09
Special Reports
2010 Outlook: Back to Business: Visibility in 1H. YE Target Is 1300. – 12/10/09
7 Reasons We Are Early in Cycle for Cyclicals – 6/25/09
Guide to Stock Bottoms: Part II – Shift to Offense. Top 3 Tech, Disc & Financials – 5/12/09
S&P 500 Model Book, Reducing ’09/’10 EPS to $57/$76 from $65/$80 – 3/24/09
2009 US Equity Outlook: Range-bound 1H. Constructive 2H. – 12/17/08
Guide to Stock Bottoms: Part I, Bottoms best called on a “rear”-ward basis – 11/21/08
The Franchise 16: Stocks to Own Beyond the Market Turmoil – 10/17/08
The Recession Guidebook, Analysis of Index and 10 Sectors during recessions – 3/12/08
US SMid Cap Perspective
Chapter After Ch 11: A Strategic Guide to Reorgs — 3/5/10
Stealth revenue recovery… adding ASH, GPI, and MWV to the JPM SMid Money List – 2/4/10
Small-Caps a decade later – stronger, larger & cheaper – 12/30/09
2010 SMid Outlook: Stock-picking to outperform again – 11/30/09
2009 SMid Conf Must-See Presentations – 11/30/09
Building a position in homebuilders; Adding KBH, HOV, and DHI to SMid Money – 11/13/09
Earnings Should Be a Catalyst for Further Outperformance of R2K – 10/15/09
Energy Stocks Should Outperform Oil; Adding OII, HOS, and HK to SMid – 8/27/09
Russell 2000 should catch up to S&P 500; Adding to JPM SMid Money List – 7/23/09
Focus on Small-Caps over Large-Caps, Buy Theme Strategies – 6/11/09
Contrarians gain. Adding GT, BDN and IOSP to SMid Money List – 4/23/09
The equity rally supports Russell 2000 Value over Growth – 03/20/09

Table of Contents
US Equity Strategy Recent Publications......................................................................2
NO LONGER OVERSOLD: 89% above 50-day avg….............5
Stocks still have room to rally from here for the next month or so…..........................6
CAUTION II: Analysts FC mean at highest level since 9/02 ..7
Street has gotten on board regarding this recovery…..................................................7
Upgrades in Stock ratings are following visible increases in earnings growth... .........8
Defensives are too Consensus, while room to upgrade Cyclicals... .............................9
Which groups are most Consensus? And Non-Consensus?.......................................10
POSITIVE: Equity flows are beginning to improve as VIX down 11
Equity inflows are improving recently.......................................................................11
…We think it is a result of the lower volatility of Stocks vs. Bonds .........................12
MARKET STRATEGY: Focus where Target Prices raised ..15
Cyclicals have seen the greatest increase in Target Prices….....................................15
The rise in Target Prices also reflects better expected earnings growth ....................16
S&P 500 Bottom-up Target Price is 1300..................................................................17
Substantial target price increases seen in Internet, Metals, Electrical Equipment… .18
Trade Idea: 23 stocks where JPM raised Targets above Street 19
Closing Correction Stocks Trade Idea .......................................................................22
Update on Financials Stocks Trade Idea....................................................................23
Update on Pro-Cyclical Stocks Trade Idea ................................................................24
Sector Comparative................................................................27
Which Industries Score the Best? Based on Target Prices and Buzz-o-Meter...........28
S&P 500: Snapshot of Industry Market Capitalization..............................................29
Price Performance – S&P 500 ...................................................................................30
Price vs. 50-Day Moving Avg – S&P 500.................................................................32
Monthly Sales Revision – S&P 500...........................................................................34
Relative Sales Momentum – S&P 500.......................................................................36
Monthly Earnings Revision – S&P 500.....................................................................38
Relative Earnings Momentum – S&P 500.................................................................40
JULI Spreads – All Industries....................................................................................42
First Call Mean Rating – S&P 500 ............................................................................44
Short Interest – S&P 500 ...........................................................................................46
ETF Fund Flows ........................................................................................................48
Price/10-Yr EPS – S&P 500 ......................................................................................50
Sector Analysis: Industries and Stocks ...............................53
Energy........................................................................................................................54
Materials ....................................................................................................................56
Industrials ..................................................................................................................58
Technology ................................................................................................................60
Staples........................................................................................................................62
HealthCare .................................................................................................................64
Telecom .....................................................................................................................66
Utilities ......................................................................................................................68
Financials...................................................................................................................70
Discretionary..............................................................................................................72
Buzz-o-Meter Methodology.......................................................................................75
Composite Score Methodology..................................................................................76