1 论文标题

Free-Trade Agreements in a Model of Trade, Migration and Politics

2 作者信息

John Douglas Wilson

Department of Economics, Michigan State University

Ilkay Yilmaz

Department of Economics, Mersin University

3 出处和链接

Cite this article:

John Douglas Wilson, Ilkay Yilmaz. Free-Trade Agreements in a Model of Trade, Migration and Politics[J]. Front. Econ. China, 2018, 13(1): 15-31.

URL:

http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/10.3868/s060-007-018-0003-7 http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/Y2018/V13/I1/15

4 摘要

本文使用概率投票模型研究了一个劳动力密集型国家和一个资本密集型国家对自由贸易协定的投票情况。从劳动力密集型国家向资本密集型国家移民提高了产生自由贸易协定的可能性，降低移民成本会引起移民增加并提高自由贸易的概率。另一方面，如果选民对支持自由贸易的候选人偏见增加导致自由贸易的可能性降低，移民数量则会减少。本文同时研究了其动态扩展模型。

Free-Trade Agreements in a Model of Trade, Migration and Politics

John Douglas Wilson

Department of Economics, MichiganState University

Ilkay Yilmaz

Department of Economics, MersinUniversity

Abstract: This paper uses a probabilistic voting model to investigate voting for a free-trade agreement between a labor-abundant country and acapital-abundant country. Migration from the labor-abundant country to the capital-abundant country increases the probability of a free-trade agreement, with lower migration costs leading to more migration and a higher free-trade probability. On the other hand, if a lower probability of free trade is caused by an increased voter bias against free-trade candidates, then there is less migration. A dynamic extension of the model is also investigated.