【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月亚洲铜行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：65
        【目录或简介】：


Asia driving the copper bus. Due largely to China’s
structural dependence on copper imports, Asia ranks as the
world’s largest consumer of copper, accounting for nearly
60% of global consumption and trade. With growth in this
region forecast to outpace developed economies, Asian
copper demand remains the key driver for the metal.
Copper prices to fall in the near term. Whilst we
acknowledge much of the bullish long-term structural
argument in copper is correct, our forecast is that copper
prices will average 18% below current levels in 2010. We
believe that consensus is confusing short- and long-term
issues in the copper market, and we see the risk towards the
downside in the near term. We expect the key driver to be
falling China copper imports, which should add continued
upward pressure to exchange inventories.
Stick to Asian copper miners; avoid smelters. We initiate
on the region’s largest copper ‘pure plays’ – OZ Minerals
(OZL) and Jiangxi Copper (JXC) – with N(V) and UW(V)
ratings, respectively. With copper concentrate supplies set to
remain tight relative to the metal, we prefer miners over
smelters. On most valuation metrics, we view OZL as
cheaper than JXC. Given our below-consensus copper price
forecasts, our 2010 estimates are 40% lower than consensus
on JXC and 24% below on OZL.
Near-term catalysts. Powered by the weak dollar, the rally
in copper prices has been the key driver of the sector this
year. On stock-specific catalysts, OZL will be delivering its
long-awaited Strategy Briefing (30 November) that will
outline plans for its significant cash reserves, while a likely
resource update is expected by 1Q10. For Jiangxi Copper,
there are few readily identifiable asset injections remaining
from its parent, but the upcoming annual TC/RC negotiations
will be important.