【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲、中东、非洲金属与矿产行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：43
        【目录或简介】：
We reiterate our preference for Russian steel and
coal stocks on the back of improving global market
conditions (see Global Metals Playbook – 2Q10
Navigating liquidity withdrawal, policy tightening and a
stronger US dollar, March 31). We increase our
domestic iron ore and scrap prices on average by
73-85% and 17-24% respectively in 2010-13. We use
the coking coal prices presented in our report Russian
Coal: Raising Estimates Following Commodity Prices
Upgrade, March 5, 2010. We raise our benchmark HRC
prices by 14-23% in 2010-13 as we believe steel makers
will be able to pass on increases in raw material costs,
which is supported by recent steel prices.
Russian steel producers continue to be at the
bottom of the cost curve… Based on our estimates,
average cash cost per tonne of slab/billet for Russian
steel producers is about $283 compared with the global
average (ex. Russia) of $526/tonne. This is due mainly
to the vertical integration of most producers, in our view.
…while the domestic price premium for steel is
returning. Domestic HRC traded on average at a
20-30% premium to the export price during 2005-08 due
to transport and other expenses required to import steel.
This trend disappeared in 2009 due to GFC, but the
premium resurfaced earlier this year and we expect it to
persist and average 10-15% in 2010.
Mechel and Evraz remain our top picks but we
remove MMK. Mechel and Evraz are vertically
integrated in coking coal and iron ore and have good
exposure to the slowly recovering Russian construction
market. We remain OW MMK on valuation but expect
some volatility due to its lack of integration in iron ore.
We raise Norilsk Nickel’s PT 19% to $250/share on
higher 2010-13 nickel price forecasts (up 17-27%). We
leave our copper price forecasts broadly unchanged.
We have also increased our 2010-13 palladium and
platinum price estimates by 19-33% and 3-16%,
respectively, which affects Norilsk Nickel positively.