【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国娱乐行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：29
        【目录或简介】：
Entertainment Industry
INDUSTRY PRIMER
The Upfront and the 2010/2011 TV Ad Outlook
■ Event: In this note, we analyze the outlook for the upcoming 2010/2011
upfront and the key factors affecting upfront spending. We also outline the
implications for our CY10 and CY11 advertising growth estimates for
national broadcast and cable television.
■ We estimate upfront revenues will increase 21% and 22% year over
year for broadcast and cable to $8.7 billion and $8.2 billion,
respectively. We estimate this strength to be driven by a healthy scatter
market and a greater amount of inventory sold this year vs. last year.
■ We still expect low single digit and mid single digit sustainable annual
revenue growth for broadcast and cable networks, respectively over
the next 5 years. Although 20%+ growth in the upfront sounds impressive
on the surface and should add to the current positive investor sentiment on
traditional media, we note that national TV advertising is mature and our
upfront forecast is boosted by our expectation that significantly more will be
sold upfront (relative to in the scatter market) vs. last year.
■ We are moderately raising our CY10 broadcast and cable ad forecast to
-3% and +4.4% from -5%-6% and +3%, respectively. We note the impact
of this year’s upfront will have only a modest impact as 3 quarters of this
year’s national TV ad market remains affected by the soft 2009/2010
upfront.
■ For CY11, we forecast national broadcast and cable TV ad growth of
2% and 7%, respectively. In our view, the key swing factor will be the
strength of the scatter market. Our current projections assume scatter
pricing in the next TV season (2010/2011) is up 5% on both a year over year
basis and relative to the upfront.
■ We do not view our ad estimate revisions as material. Our individual
company estimates are unchanged as they already factor in the improved ad
climate. We also believe the positive tone to the TV advertising market is
incorporated in consensus expectations.
■ Stock Calls: In terms of our recommendations, we maintain our bar bell
investment strategy. In the context of our Market Weight rating on the U.S.
Entertainment sector, our top picks are Time Warner (defensive growth) and
Disney (cyclical earnings recovery potential and strong secular prospects),
both rated Outperform.