【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月台湾硬件设备行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：31
        【目录或简介】：
Margin risks rising for PC downstream, particularly for brands. While
PC end-demand and inventory situation remain healthy (we have revised up
our revenue estimates), a depreciating euro, continued strength in
commodity prices (DRAM/TFT), competition and rising labour costs are likely
to put a temporary lid on the earnings upgrades story for PC downstream.
Smaller players like Asustek are also struggling to secure stable component
supplies and are, hence, ending up paying higher prices. Although Acer is,
so far, managing better, we believe the risks to its margins are also rising.
ODM and component players are also facing increasing competition and
rising labour costs, although the labour shortage issue could ease into 2Q10.
■
Prefer ODMs to brands. The divergence in EPS upgrades over the past six
months (15% and 20% for Acer and Asustek versus 1% and 4% for Quanta
and Wistron, respectively) and share price performance (Acer and Asustek
having outperformed Quanta and Wistron by 15-25%, respectively), in our
view, are not fully capturing the rising risk to brands’ earnings in 2010. In
addition, ODMs also have a high 5-6% dividend yield and have no currency
(euro) issues, and easing labour shortages could help them on ASPs of noncritical
components. We prefer Quanta and Wistron, given their relative
share price performance and rising sales momentum. We would cut Asustek
and top-slice Acer (structurally strong, but valuations are quite full).
■
Top picks – Hon Hai, Delta, Quanta, Wistron and Synnex. We are
downgrading Asustek and FTC to NEUTRAL and revising down our 2010
earnings forecasts for Acer, Quanta, Wistron, Catcher and Chicony to reflect
these issues. Our top picks in the downstream space are Hon Hai, Delta,
Quanta, Wistron and Synnex. Hon Hai has is much better prepared on
labour issues compared with its peers, with a labour force of 616,000 as of
end-3Q09. It has also been moving production sites inland since 2007. Delta
should fare better than most component companies, due to its welldiversified
product mix and strong R&D capability. Synnex continues to
benefit from market share gains in China PC and handset markets.