对上证50ETF对数收益率序列进行自相关检验,发现其与滞后4阶存在自相关性,
Autocorrelation Partial Correlation AC PAC Q-Stat Prob
| | | | 1 0.009 0.009 0.1544 0.694
| | | | 2 -0.038 -0.038 2.9604 0.228
| | | | 3 -0.002 -0.001 2.9666 0.397
| | | | 4 0.068 0.067 12.101 0.017
| | | | 5 -0.010 -0.012 12.304 0.031
*| | *| | 6 -0.077 -0.073 24.109 0.000
| | | | 7 0.040 0.042 27.321 0.000
| | | | 8 0.053 0.043 32.898 0.000
| | | | 9 0.024 0.027 34.044 0.000
| | | | 10 -0.006 0.006 34.116 0.000
garch模型结果如下:
Included observations: 1962 after adjustments
Convergence achieved after 13 iterations
Presample variance: backcast (parameter = 0.7)
GARCH = C(3) + C(4)*RESID(-1)^2 + C(5)*GARCH(-1)
Variable Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob.
C 0.040717 0.025905 1.571764 0.1160
R(-4) 0.004200 0.023993 0.175058 0.8610
Variance Equation
C 0.008625 0.002204 3.913780 0.0001
RESID(-1)^2 0.052081 0.004399 11.83885 0.0000
GARCH(-1) 0.945449 0.003962 238.6447 0.0000
R-squared 0.000205 Mean dependent var 0.011958
Adjusted R-squared -0.000305 S.D. dependent var 1.539192
S.E. of regression 1.539426 Akaike info criterion 3.398398
Sum squared resid 4644.873 Schwarz criterion 3.412623
Log likelihood -3328.829 Hannan-Quinn criter. 3.403627
Durbin-Watson stat 1.980541
问题是现在这个结果可以用吗?R(-4)的t检验没有通过可能是因为什么?