【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月美国航空行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：46
        【目录或简介】：
risk/reward of the airline “cycle call.” We have
updated our estimates and liquidity projections for 2010
to account for recent trends/news events. Additionally,
we are moving our valuation levels to YE10 from YE09
and raising base case valuations across all airlines.
Importantly, we expect investors’ liquidity concerns to
dissipate in the coming months as investors incorporate
the full implications of US Airways’ (LCC) recent liquidity
improvements (see Debate 2 page 7). Now that (1)
previously exuberant expectations have normalized as
evidenced by price action in the last 1-2 months vs.
improving trends and (2) the risk of a liquidity squeeze at
a major carrier in 2010 has fallen; we believe investors
will become increasingly willing to bet on the cycle.
Unlikely to get a markedly better entry point in the
coming months. Though we believed that airline
profitability is improving, we were reluctant to make the
“airline cycle call” ahead of 3Q09 earnings like many of
our sell-side peers on the belief that investors would be
able to get a significantly better entry-point near-term.
Since we reiterated our In-line Industry View (see
Staying on the Sidelines for Now 11/2/09), many of the
five indicators we noted we were watching to become
more constructive on the space have turned more
favorable (see Debate 1 on page 5). Moreover, we also
believe that we are on the cusp of a stream of positive
catalysts for the group that will showcase substantial 2nd
derivative improvement in revenue and only
subsequently will we see evidence of the anemic
rebound that has concerned us. Therefore, we believe
investors will be hard-pressed to identify a better
entry-point for the cycle call in the coming months.
Re-orienting Airline Ratings. Consistent with our
evolving industry view, we are adding risk to our
recommendations. As such, we are upgrading both
AMR and UAUA from EW to OW and downgrading
shares of ALGT (OW to EW) and ALK (EW to UW).