【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国航空行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：49
        【目录或简介】：
Revising our total mainline straight-line revenue
forecast higher – now ~12% growth YoY (see pg. 2).
Consistent with recent March PRASM growth results
from a number of carriers and DAL’s revenue trend
commentary on Tuesday, near-term revenue growth
trends are looking increasingly favorable. While our
current bottom-up industry revenue estimate is for
~10.5% YoY revenue growth, our sequential change
based forecast now indicates that this may prove
conservative. Fundamentally, a number of factors drive
risk to our current bottom-up estimate, including: (1)
Strong sequential improvement in core demand trends
(favorable close-in bookings, and improving pricing
trends); (2) International revenue growth strength
(particularly in Atlantic and Pacific, though to be fair April
Atlantic trends will be weighed on by the volcano); (3)
Rapidly recovering premium / corporate revenue trends
(DAL highlighted that recent corporate revenue trends
have been up as much as ~50% YoY); and (4)
Increased yield management opportunities, as a large
number of peak-travel surcharge days remain ahead in
summer travel months.
International shows marked outperformance –
reaffirms legacy airline bias. We continue to expect
the international segment to be a key driver of
incremental outperformance in 2010 (see Look for Int’l
Rebound Next 9/15/09), a key pillar in our preference for
the legacy stocks. In March, mainline international
passenger revenues grew nearly 20% YoY, well above
mainline domestic growth of just under 12%. Based on
our straight-line sequential forecast, international
outperformance is likely to be significant in 2010 (see
pages 4-5), growing largest in the summer months.
Attractive Industry View: We believe that airline
stocks should benefit from favorable near-term data
points, including positive demand commentary during
earnings season. As such, we reiterate our thesis that
the airline industry is firmly in the Recovery Phase of this
up-cycle (see Cycle Debate Primer: Flight Plan for the
Next Cycle 12/21/09), historically an attractive period in
which to build longer-term positions.

Contents:
Page 2: This Month’s Key Charts
Page 3: Straight Line Revenue Forecasts
Page 7: Straight Line PRASM Forecasts
Page 9: Revenue Momentum Indicators
Page 19: Sequential Change Analysis
Page 29: YoY Change Trends
Page 33: Long-Term Trends
Page 42: Methodology